Author name code: manchester ADS astronomy entries on 2022-09-14 author:"Manchester, Ward B. IV" ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Title: Modeling FETCH Observations of 2005 May 13 CME Authors: Jensen, Elizabeth A.; Manchester, Ward B., IV; Wexler, David B.; Kooi, Jason E.; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Jian, Lan K.; Pevtsov, Alexei; Fung, Shing Bibcode: 2022arXiv220903350J Altcode: This paper evaluates the quality of CME analysis that has been undertaken with the rare Faraday rotation observation of an eruption. Exploring the capability of the FETCH instrument hosted on the MOST mission, a four-satellite Faraday rotation radio sounding instrument deployed between the Earth and the Sun, we discuss the opportunities and challenges to improving the current analysis approaches. Title: Three-Dimensional Structure of the Corona During WHPI Campaign Rotations CR-2219 and CR-2223 Authors: Lloveras, D. G.; Vásquez, A. M.; Nuevo, F. A.; Frazin, R. A.; Manchester, W.; Sachdeva, N.; Van der Holst, B.; Lamy, P.; Gilardy, H. Bibcode: 2022JGRA..12730406L Altcode: Differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) and white light (WL) tomography were applied to study the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the global solar corona for two Whole Heliosphere and Planetary Interactions campaign periods, Carrington rotations 2219 and 2223. With DEMT, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly images were used to reconstruct the 3D coronal electron density and temperature in the range of heliocentric distance 1.02-1.25 R⊙. With WL tomography, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric COronagraph-C2 images were used to reconstruct the 3D electron density in the range of heliocentric distance 2.5-6.0 R⊙. The two periods were also simulated with the 3D-magneto-hydrodynamic Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), and its results compared in detail with the reconstructions. The DEMT analysis reveals a 20% less dense and 20% hotter corona than for rotations corresponding to the solar cycle 23/24 deep minimum. The electron density and temperature of the AWSoM model agree with DEMT results within 10% and 20%, respectively, while its electron density overestimates results of WL tomography up to 75%. The slow (fast) component of the terminal wind speed of the model is found to be associated with field lines characterized by larger (smaller) values of the tomographic density and temperature at the coronal base. DEMT reconstructions reveal the coronal plasma to be ubiquitously characterized by temperature variability of up to ≈45% over spatial scales of order ∼104 km. Taking into account this level of fine-structure by global models may be consequential for their predictions on wave propagation in the corona. Title: Modern Faraday Rotation Studies to Probe the Solar Wind Authors: Kooi, Jason E.; Wexler, David B.; Jensen, Elizabeth A.; Kenny, Megan N.; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Wilson, Lynn B., III; Wood, Brian E.; Jian, Lan K.; Fung, Shing F.; Pevtsov, Alexei; Gopalswamy, Nat; Manchester, Ward B. Bibcode: 2022FrASS...941866K Altcode: For decades, observations of Faraday rotation have provided unique insights into the plasma density and magnetic field structure of the solar wind. Faraday rotation (FR) is the rotation of the plane of polarization when linearly polarized radiation propagates through a magnetized plasma, such as the solar corona, coronal mass ejection (CME), or stream interaction region. FR measurements are very versatile: they provide a deeper understanding of the large-scale coronal magnetic field over a range of heliocentric distances (especially ≈1.5 to 20 R⊙) not typically accessible to in situ spacecraft observations; detection of small-timescale variations in FR can provide information on magnetic field fluctuations and magnetohydrodynamic wave activity; and measurement of differential FR can be used to detect electric currents. FR depends on the integrated product of the plasma density and the magnetic field component along the line of sight to the observer; historically, models have been used to distinguish between their contributions to FR. In the last two decades, though, new methods have been developed to complement FR observations with independent measurements of the plasma density based on the choice of background radio source: calculation of the dispersion measure (pulsars), measurement of Thomson scattering brightness (radio galaxies), and application of radio ranging and apparent-Doppler tracking (spacecraft). New methods and new technology now make it possible for FR observations of solar wind structures to return not only the magnitude of the magnetic field, but also the full vector orientation. In the case of a CME, discerning the internal magnetic flux rope structure is critical for space weather applications. Title: The impact of coronal mass ejections and flares on the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter HD189733b Authors: Hazra, Gopal; Vidotto, Aline A.; Carolan, Stephen; Villarreal D'Angelo, Carolina; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2022MNRAS.509.5858H Altcode: 2021arXiv211104531H; 2021MNRAS.tmp.3019H High-energy stellar irradiation can photoevaporate planetary atmospheres, which can be observed in spectroscopic transits of hydrogen lines. For the exoplanet HD189733b, multiple observations in the Ly α line have shown that atmospheric evaporation is variable, going from undetected to enhanced evaporation in a 1.5-yr interval. Coincidentally or not, when HD189733b was observed to be evaporating, a stellar flare had just occurred 8 h prior to the observation. This led to the question of whether this temporal variation in evaporation occurred due to the flare, an unseen associated coronal mass ejection (CME), or even the simultaneous effect of both. In this work, we investigate the impact of flares (radiation), winds, and CMEs (particles) on the atmosphere of HD189733b using three-dimensional radiation hydrodynamic simulations that self-consistently include stellar photon heating. We study four cases: first, the quiescent phase including stellar wind; secondly, a flare; thirdly, a CME; and fourthly, a flare that is followed by a CME. Compared to the quiescent case, we find that the flare alone increases the evaporation rate by only 25 per cent, while the CME leads to a factor of 4 increments. We calculate Ly α synthetic transits and find that the flare alone cannot explain the observed high blueshifted velocities seen in the Ly α. The CME, however, leads to an increase in the velocity of escaping atmospheres, enhancing the blueshifted transit depth. While the effects of CMEs show a promising potential, our models are not able to fully explain the blueshifted transit depths, indicating that they might require additional physical mechanisms. Title: Improving the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model Based on Parker Solar Probe Data Authors: van der Holst, B.; Huang, J.; Sachdeva, N.; Kasper, J. C.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Borovikov, D.; Chandran, B. D. G.; Case, A. W.; Korreck, K. E.; Larson, D.; Livi, R.; Stevens, M.; Whittlesey, P.; Bale, S. D.; Pulupa, M.; Malaspina, D. M.; Bonnell, J. W.; Harvey, P. R.; Goetz, K.; MacDowall, R. J. Bibcode: 2022ApJ...925..146V Altcode: In van der Holst et al. (2019), we modeled the solar corona and inner heliosphere of the first encounter of NASA's Parker Solar Probe (PSP) using the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport-Global Oscillation Network Group magnetograms, and made predictions of the state of the solar wind plasma for the first encounter. AWSoM uses low-frequency Alfvén wave turbulence to address the coronal heating and acceleration. Here, we revise our simulations, by introducing improvements in the energy partitioning of the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton heating and using a better grid design. We compare the new AWSoM results with the PSP data and find improved agreement with the magnetic field, turbulence level, and parallel proton plasma beta. To deduce the sources of the solar wind observed by PSP, we use the AWSoM model to determine the field line connectivity between PSP locations near the perihelion at 2018 November 6 UT 03:27 and the solar surface. Close to the perihelion, the field lines trace back to a negative-polarity region about the equator. Title: Predicting the Optimal Poynting Flux for Different Solar Activity Conditions for Realtime Solar Wind Prediction Authors: Huang, Zhenguang; Toth, Gabor; Gombosi, Tamas; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Zhao, Lulu; Manchester, Ward; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH45D2395H Altcode: Its critical to have an accurate solar wind background in the inner heliosphere for space weather prediction, from the arrival of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs), to the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). In the space weather community, there are two major approaches to predict the solar wind background: one uses empirical or semi-empirical models, e.g., the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model; the other is based on first-principles model, e.g., the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) developed at the University of Michigan. In the past, it was difficult for physics models to perform real-time solar wind predictions, because the computational cost is much higher for physics-based models than for empirical or semi-empirical models, and the optimal input parameters could be different for different solar rotations in which case the user would need to run the model with different input parameters to best predict the solar wind. Nowadays, the computational cost is not a big issue as super computers are much more powerful than before. The remaining issue is that the input parameters could vary. In real-time solar wind prediction, it is necessary to have optimal input parameters in advance. In this presentation, we study the relation between one of the most important parameters for AWSoM, the Poynting flux at the inner boundary, and the magnetic field structure of the solar corona. We obtain the optimal Poynting flux value for nine Carrington rotations in the last solar cycle and correlate it with various characteristics of the solar magnetic field, such as open flux, area of coronal holes, etc.. The preliminary results are encouraging, and suggest that the optimal parameter can be estimated from the magnetograms. Title: SOFIE (Solar-wind with Field-lines and Energetic-particles): A data-driven and self-consistent SEP modeling and forecasting tool Authors: Zhao, Lulu; Sokolov, Igor; Gombosi, Tamas; Tenishev, Valeriy; Huang, Zhenguang; Toth, Gabor; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Manchester, Ward; van der Holst, Bart Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH55F1900Z Altcode: We present a data-driven and self-consistent SEP model, SOFIE, to simulate the acceleration and transport processes of energetic particles using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). In this model, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space are modeled by the Alfven Wave Solar-atmosphere Model(-Realtime) (AWSoM(-R)) driven by the near-real-time hourly updated GONG (bihourly ADAPT-GONG) magnetograms. In the background solar wind, the CMEs are launched employing the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL), by inserting a flux rope estimated from the free magnetic energy in the active region. The acceleration and transport processes are then modeled self-consistently by the multiple magnetic field line tracker (M-FLAMPA) and the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS). We will demonstrate the capability of SOFIE to demystify the acceleration processes by the CME-driven shock in the low corona and the modulation of energetic particles by the solar wind structures. Besides, using selected historical SEP events, e.g. 2013 Apr 11 event, we will illustrate the progresses toward a faster-than-real-time prediction of SEPs. Title: AWSoM MHD simulation of a solar active region with realistic spectral synthesis Authors: Manchester, Ward; Shi, Tong; Landi, Enrico; Szente, Judit; van der Holst, Bart; Chen, Yuxi; Toth, Gabor; Bertello, Luca; Pevtsov, Alexander Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH12B..02M Altcode: For the first time, we simulate the detailed spectral line emission from a solar active region (AR) with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). We select an active region appearing near disk center on 2018 July 13 and use an NSO-HMI synoptic magnetogram to specify the magnetic field at the model's inner boundary. To resolve smaller-scale magnetic features, we apply adaptive mesh refinement to resolve the AR with a spatial resolution of 0.37 degrees, four times higher than the background corona. We then apply the SPECTRUM code informed with Chianti spectral emissivities to calculate more than a dozen spectral lines forming at temperatures ranging from 0.5 to 3+ MK. Comparisons are made between these simulated line profiles and those observed by the Hinode/EIS instrument where we find close agreement (within a 20% margin of error of peak intensity) across a wide range of loop sizes and temperatures. We also compare the differential emission measure calculated from both the simulation and EIS observation to further show the model's ability to capture the plasma temperature and density. Finally, we simulate and compare Doppler velocities and find that simulated flow patterns to be of comparable magnitude to what is observed. Our results demonstrate the broad applicability of the low-frequency Alfven wave balanced turbulence theory for explaining the heating of coronal loops. Title: AWSoM context simulations for Parker Solar Probe encounter 7 Authors: van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward; Klein, Kristopher Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH15C2045V Altcode: We compare Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) simulations with the seventh orbit of NASAs Parker Solar Probe (PSP). The perihelion of this encounter is 20.3 Rsun reached at 2021-01-01. In the AWSoM model, the coronal heating and acceleration is addressed via low-frequency, reflection-driven Alfven waves. The nonlinear interaction of counter-propagating waves results in a turbulent energy cascade. The dissipated wave energy is then apportioned to electron and anisotropic proton temperatures. We check the ability of the simulations to reproduce the observed plasma mass density, velocity, and magnetic fields, temperature anisotropy, and wave turbulence levels. To deduce the sources of the solar wind observed by PSP we use the AWSoM model to determine the field line connectivity between PSP locations and the Sun. We will also describe the large-scale structures that PSP might have passed through, for instance whether PSP was in the fast or slow wind and when PSP crossed the heliospheric current sheet. We emphasize the proton temperature anisotropies and check for the occurrence of plasma instabilities. Title: Novel Magnetic Field and Electron Density Measurements of CMEs (within AU) with the Proposed Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) Mission Authors: Jensen, P. E., C. S. P., Elizabeth; Manchester, Ward; Fung, Shing; Gopalswamy, Nat; Jian, Lan; Kenny, Megan; Kooi, Jason; Lazio, Joseph; Li, Lihua; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Pevtsov, Alexei; Wexler, David; Wilson, Lynn; Wood, Brian; Bale, Stuart; Bastian, Tim Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH33A..08J Altcode: The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission concept will be the most advanced solar observatory to date (Gopalswamy et al, SH0001, 2021). Comprising four spacecraft, two located in the L4 and ahead of L4 position and two located in the L5 and behind of the L5 position, the four lines-of-sight (LOSs) form the basis for the unique Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric Structures (FETCH) instrument (Wexler et al, SH0019, 2021). We report on our modeling into the expected Faraday rotation (FR) caused by an Earth-directed CME crossing the MOST/FETCH radio-sensing paths using a heliospheric 3-D MHD model to obtain the necessary LOS data on electron density and magnetic field components (see example image). Specifically, we utilized simulation data of the 2005 May 13 CME (Manchester IV et al., 2014, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion), which erupted from the north-south polarity inversion line of AR 10759 at 16:03 UT, reaching speeds around 2000 km/s in the corona. The trajectory of the CME at an acute angle to the Earth-Sun line crosses each FETCH LOS at a different time. Two LOSs are at different viewing angles with little overlap between the CME sheath and magnetic flux rope core. A blind test fitting of the Faraday rotation functions (Figures 6 and 7 in Jensen et al., 2010, Sol. Phys.) to the simulated FETCH observations reproduced the orientation of the CME for its handedness as well as its associated complementary degenerate solution. In conclusion, one of the four LOSs will be more sensitive to observing CME flux rope structure of Earthward CMEs, depending on their trajectory. We find that two of the four LOSs enable analyzing CME evolution, whereas the other two LOSs enable analyzing the average magnetic field vector in the corresponding high density regions dominating the measurements at that time. For example, the average sheath magnetic field vector can be partially measured in the plane of the ecliptic due to the angular differences between 2 LOSs. We discuss future work as this effort develops. Title: FETCH Concept: Investigating Quiescent and Transient Magnetic Structures in the Inner Heliosphere using Faraday Rotation of Spacecraft Radio Signals Authors: Wexler, David; Jensen, Elizabeth; Gopalswamy, Nat; Wilson, Lynn; Fung, Shing; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Jian, Lan; Bastian, Tim; Pevtsov, Alexei; Manchester, Ward; Kenny, Megan; Lazio, Joseph; Wood, Brian; Kooi, Jason Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH31A..05W Altcode: The Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH) is a new instrument concept being developed to probe coronal and interplanetary magnetic field structures in the ambient solar wind, corotating interaction regions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they evolve in the inner heliosphere. FETCH is one of the instruments that constitute the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial (MOST) science mission. FETCH will measure Faraday rotation (FR) of linearly polarized spacecraft radio signals transmitted along four lines of sight provided by the four MOST spacecraft: two large spacecraft deployed at Sun-Earth Lagrange points 4 and 5 and two smaller spacecraft, one ahead of L4 and the other behind L5. FETCH will transmit and receive at selected radio frequencies in the 1-100 MHz range for lines of sight with solar impact parameters < 0.5 AU. FR yields the line-of-sight (LOS) integrated product of electron number density and LOS-projected magnetic field strengths. The FR measurements will be obtained from the Stokes polarization parameters while additional plasma parameters, such as electron column density, will be extracted from other signal diagnostics. The multifrequency FR data and four lines-of-sight will be used to constrain the magnetic field topology and dynamics of interplanetary plasma structures upstream from Earth. Unique to this FR experiment, the FETCH transmitter-receiver instrumentation is positioned such that the entire sensing path remains in interplanetary space, thus avoiding the complications of trans-ionospheric FR observations. The FETCH key science objectives include: (1) characterizing CME magnetic field structure and flux rope orientation, (2) tracking CME propagation and shock signatures, (3) understanding the magnetic field features of corotating interaction regions in the extended corona and inner heliosphere, and (4) determination of large-scale MHD wave organization in regions of developed ambient solar wind and its evolution during perturbed flows. The MOST mission will build upon the achievements of the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions during the last couple of decades. FETCH will help fill the long-standing measurement gap of magnetic field data in the inner heliosphere. Title: The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) Authors: Gopalswamy, Nat; Kucera, Therese; Leake, James; MacDowall, Robert; Wilson, Lynn; Kanekal, Shrikanth; Shih, Albert; Christe, Steven; Gong, Qian; Viall, Nicholeen; Tadikonda, Sivakumar; Fung, Shing; Yashiro, Seiji; Makela, Pertti; Golub, Leon; DeLuca, Edward; Reeves, Katharine; Seaton, Daniel; Savage, Sabrina; Winebarger, Amy; DeForest, Craig; Desai, Mihir; Bastian, Tim; Lazio, Joseph; Jensen, P. E., C. S. P., Elizabeth; Manchester, Ward; Wood, Brian; Kooi, Jason; Wexler, David; Bale, Stuart; Krucker, Sam; Hurlburt, Neal; DeRosa, Marc; Pevtsov, Alexei; Tripathy, Sushanta; Jain, Kiran; Gosain, Sanjay; Petrie, Gordon; Kholikov, Shukirjon; Zhao, Junwei; Scherrer, Philip; Woods, Thomas; Chamberlin, Philip; Kenny, Megan Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH12A..07G Altcode: The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) is a comprehensive mission concept targeting the magnetic coupling between the solar interior and the heliosphere. The wide-ranging imagery and time series data from MOST will help understand the solar drivers and the heliospheric responses as a system, discerning and tracking 3D magnetic field structures, both transient and quiescent in the inner heliosphere. MOST will have seven remote-sensing and three in-situ instruments: (1) Magnetic and Doppler Imager (MaDI) to investigate surface and subsurface magnetism by exploiting the combination of helioseismic and magnetic-field measurements in the photosphere; (2) Inner Coronal Imager in EUV (ICIE) to study large-scale structures such as active regions, coronal holes and eruptive structures by capturing the magnetic connection between the photosphere and the corona to about 3 solar radii; (3) Hard X-ray Imager (HXI) to image the non-thermal flare structure; (4) White-light Coronagraph (WCOR) to seamlessly study transient and quiescent large-scale coronal structures extending from the ICIE field of view (FOV); (5) Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH), a novel radio package to determine the magnetic field structure and plasma column density, and their evolution within 0.5 au; (6) Heliospheric Imager with Polarization (HIP) to track solar features beyond the WCOR FOV, study their impact on Earth, and provide important context for FETCH; (7) Radio and Plasma Wave instrument (M/WAVES) to study electron beams and shocks propagating into the heliosphere via passive radio emission; (8) Solar High-energy Ion Velocity Analyzer (SHIVA) to determine spectra of electrons, and ions from H to Fe at multiple spatial locations and use energetic particles as tracers of magnetic connectivity; (9) Solar Wind Magnetometer (MAG) to characterize magnetic structures at 1 au; (10) Solar Wind Plasma Instrument (SWPI) to characterize plasma structures at 1 au. MOST will have two large spacecraft with identical payloads deployed at L4 and L5 and two smaller spacecraft ahead of L4 and behind L5 to carry additional FETCH elements. MOST will build upon SOHO and STEREO achievements to expand the multiview observational approach into the first half of the 21st Century. Title: Global Sensitivity Analysis for Solar-Wind Simulations in the Space Weather Modelling Framework Authors: Jivani, Aniket; Huan, Xun; Chen, Yang; van der Holst, Bart; Zou, Shasha; Huang, Zhenguang; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Iong, Daniel; Manchester, Ward; Toth, Gabor Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH55C1851J Altcode: The Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF) offers efficient and flexible sun-to-earth simulations based on coupled first principles and/or empirical models. This encompasses computing the quiet solar wind, generating a coronal mass ejection (CME), propagating the CME through the heliosphere, and calculating the magnetospheric impact via geospace models. The predictions from these different steps and models are affected by uncertainty and variation of many model inputs and parameters, such as the Poynting flux emanating from the photosphere and driving and heating the solar wind. In this presentation, as part of the NextGen SWMF project funded by NSF, we perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the quiet solar wind simulations produced by our Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM). We first catalogue the various sources of uncertainty and their distributions, and then propagate the uncertainty to key predictive quantities of interest, the in-situ solar wind and magnetic field at 1 au, through space-filling designs of high-fidelity simulations. Using this dataset, we then build polynomial chaos surrogate models that offer a convenient route to global sensitivity analysis, which quantifies the contribution of each input parameters uncertainty towards the variability of the QoIs. The resulting Sobol sensitivity index allows us to rank and retain only the most impactful parameters going forward, thereby achieving dimension-reduction of the stochastic space. We have performed this UQ analysis for both solar maximum and solar minimum conditions, and we will summarize our findings in this presentation. Title: Developing the Michigan Sun-to-Earth Model with Data Assimilation and Quantified Uncertainty Authors: Toth, Gabor; Chen, Yang; Huan, Xun; van der Holst, Bart; Zou, Shasha; Jivani, Aniket; Iong, Daniel; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Huang, Zhenguang; Chen, Yuxi; Gaenko, Alexander; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH53B..06T Altcode: As part of the Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainty program, our project, funded by NSF, has been working on developing the Michigan Sun-to-Earth Model with Data Assimilation and Quantified Uncertainty (MSTEM-QUDA). In this talk we will summarize the main goals of the project and report our progress. Using sophisticated experimental design and fully automated scripts, we have performed many hundreds of simulations with our solar corona and heliosphere model generating steady state solar wind solutions. Based on these simulations, we have completed the uncertainty quantification analysis. One important finding is that the physically meaningful range of certain model parameters depends on the solar cycle. We will use an ensemble of background solar wind model solutions as a starting point for simulating coronal mass ejections. Our preliminary model runs show promising accuracy for the CME arrival time. We have also ported the Geospace model, a large part of MSTEM-QUDA, to run efficiently on a GPU. In fact, we can run the operational Geospace model on a single GPU significantly faster than real time at the same speed as using about 100 CPU cores. The Michigan Sun-to-Earth Model is available as an open-source distribution at https://github.com/MSTEM-QUDA to the entire community. Title: Tracking the Source of Solar Type II Bursts through Comparisons of Simulations and Radio Data Authors: Hegedus, Alexander M.; Manchester, Ward B.; Kasper, Justin C. Bibcode: 2021ApJ...922..203H Altcode: 2021arXiv210207875H The most intense solar energetic particle events are produced by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by intense type II radio bursts below 15 MHz. Understanding where these type II bursts are generated relative to an erupting CME would reveal important details of particle acceleration near the Sun, but the emission cannot be imaged on Earth due to distortion from its ionosphere. Here, a technique is introduced to identify the likely source location of the emission by comparing the dynamic spectrum observed from a single spacecraft against synthetic spectra made from hypothesized emitting regions within a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulation of the recreated CME. The radio-loud 2005 May 13 CME was chosen as a test case, with Wind/WAVES radio data being used to frame the inverse problem of finding the most likely progression of burst locations. An MHD recreation is used to create synthetic spectra for various hypothesized burst locations. A framework is developed to score these synthetic spectra by their similarity to the type II frequency profile derived from the Wind/WAVES data. Simulated areas with 4× enhanced entropy and elevated de Hoffmann-Teller velocities are found to produce synthetic spectra similar to spacecraft observations. A geometrical analysis suggests the eastern edge of the entropy-derived shock around (-30°, 0°) was emitting in the first hour of the event before falling off, and the western/southwestern edge of the shock centered around (6°, -12°) was a dominant area of radio emission for the 2 hr of simulation data out to 20 solar radii. Title: Simulating Solar Maximum Conditions Using the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (AWSoM) Authors: Sachdeva, Nishtha; Tóth, Gábor; Manchester, Ward B.; van der Holst, Bart; Huang, Zhenguang; Sokolov, Igor V.; Zhao, Lulu; Shidi, Qusai Al; Chen, Yuxi; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Henney, Carl J.; Lloveras, Diego G.; Vásquez, Alberto M. Bibcode: 2021ApJ...923..176S Altcode: To simulate solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and predict their time of arrival and geomagnetic impact, it is important to accurately model the background solar wind conditions in which CMEs propagate. We use the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the the Space Weather Modeling Framework to simulate solar maximum conditions during two Carrington rotations and produce solar wind background conditions comparable to the observations. We describe the inner boundary conditions for AWSoM using the ADAPT global magnetic maps and validate the simulated results with EUV observations in the low corona and measured plasma parameters at L1 as well as at the position of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft. This work complements our prior AWSoM validation study for solar minimum conditions and shows that during periods of higher magnetic activity, AWSoM can reproduce the solar plasma conditions (using properly adjusted photospheric Poynting flux) suitable for providing proper initial conditions for launching CMEs. Title: Predicting the Background Solar Wind for Solar Maximum Conditions with the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere model (AWSoM) Authors: Sachdeva, Nishtha; Toth, Gabor; Manchester, Ward; van der Holst, Bart; Huang, Zhenguang; Sokolov, Igor; Zhao, Lulu; Al Shidi, Qusai; Chen, Yuxi; Gombosi, Tamas; Henney, Carl Bibcode: 2021AGUFMSH45D2396S Altcode: For physics-based simulations of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) it is essential to start with realistic background solar wind conditions. To achieve this goal, we use the 3D extended MHD Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) to simulate the background plasma environment during the magnetically active phase of solar cycle 24 and validate the results with in situ and remote observations. Representing the solar maximum conditions by two Carrington Rotations, we use the ADAPT-HMI photospheric magnetic-field maps to drive AWSoM and simulate the solar wind from the low corona to Earths orbit. We compare the AWSoM predicted solar wind with EUV observations near the Sun as well as with observed plasma and magnetic field parameters at L1 and at the STEREO spacecraft location. We find that the optimal value for the Poynting flux parameter of the model depends on the solar activity: for solar maximum it has to be reduced by about a factor of two compared to the solar minimum. Using properly adjusted Poynting flux parameters for the solar maximum period results in a reasonable match with observations for which quantitative comparisons show small margins of error. These provide a reasonably accurate background solar wind into which a CME will be launched. Title: A Numerical View of Stellar Coronal Mass Ejections and Exoplanet Habitability Authors: Alvarado Gomez, Julian; Drake, Jeremy; Cohen, Ofer; Fraschetti, Federico; Garraffo, Cecilia; Poppenhaeger, Katja; Yadav, Rakesh; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2021AGUFM.U43B..09A Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are more energetic than any other class of solar phenomena. They arise from the rapid release of up to 1033 erg of magnetic energy mainly in the form of particle acceleration and bulk plasma motion. Their stellar counterparts, presumably involving much larger energies, are expected to play a fundamental role in shaping the environmental conditions around low-mass stars, in some cases perhaps with catastrophic consequences for planetary systems due to processes such as atmospheric erosion and depletion. Despite their importance, the direct observational evidence for stellar CMEs is almost non-existent. In this way, numerical simulations constitute extremely valuable tools to shed some light on eruptive behaviour in the stellar regime. In this talk, I will review recent results obtained from realistic modelling of CMEs in active stars, highlighting their key role in the interpretation of currently available observational constraints. This includes studies performed on M-dwarf stars, focusing on how emerging signatures in different wavelengths related to these events vary as a function of the magnetic properties of the star. Finally, the implications and relevance of these numerical results will be discussed in the context of future characterisation of host star-exoplanet systems. Title: What sustained multi-disciplinary research can achieve: The space weather modeling framework Authors: Gombosi, Tamas I.; Chen, Yuxi; Glocer, Alex; Huang, Zhenguang; Jia, Xianzhe; Liemohn, Michael W.; Manchester, Ward B.; Pulkkinen, Tuija; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Al Shidi, Qusai; Sokolov, Igor V.; Szente, Judit; Tenishev, Valeriy; Toth, Gabor; van der Holst, Bart; Welling, Daniel T.; Zhao, Lulu; Zou, Shasha Bibcode: 2021JSWSC..11...42G Altcode: 2021arXiv210513227G Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD)-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Title: Localizing the Source of Type II Emission Around a CME with the Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) and MHD Simulations Authors: Hegedus, Alexander; Manchester, Ward; Kasper, Justin; Lazio, Joseph; Romero-Wolf, Andrew Bibcode: 2021EGUGA..23.6435H Altcode: The Earth"s Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window, which has never been achieved. One application for such a system is observing type II bursts that track solar energetic particle acceleration occurring at Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shocks. This is one of the primary science targets for SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit. SunRISE is a NASA Heliophysics Mission of Opportunity that began Phase B (Formulation) in June 2020, and plans to launch for a 12-month mission in mid-2023. In this work we present an update to the data processing and science analysis pipeline for SunRISE and evaluate its performance in localizing type II bursts around a simulated CME.To create realistic virtual type II input data, we employ a 2-temperature MHD simulation of the May 13th 2005 CME event, and superimpose realistic radio emission models on the CME-driven shock front, and propagate the signal through the simulated array. Data cuts based on different plasma parameter thresholds (e.g. de Hoffman-Teller velocity and angle between shock normal and the upstream magnetic field) are tested to get the best match to the true recorded emission. This model type II emission is then fed to the SunRISE data processing pipeline to ensure that the array can localize the emission. We include realistic thermal noise dominated by the galactic background at these low frequencies, as well as new sources of phase noise from positional uncertainty of each spacecraft. We test simulated trajectories of SunRISE and image what the array recovers, comparing it to the virtual input, finding that SunRISE can resolve the source of type II emission to within its prescribed goal of 1/3 the CME width. This shows that SunRISE will significantly advance the scientific community"s understanding of type II burst generation, and consequently, acceleration of solar energetic particles at CMEs. This unique combination of SunRISE observations and MHD recreations of space weather events will allow an unprecedented look into the plasma parameters important for these processes. Title: Eruptive events in active stars: Lessons from numerical simulations Authors: Alvarado Gomez, J.; Drake, J. J.; Fraschetti, F.; Cohen, O.; Poppenhaeger, K.; Garraffo, C.; Moschou, S.; Vocks, C.; Yadav, R.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2021BAAS...53c0401A Altcode: Flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are more energetic than any other class of solar phenomena. These events involve the rapid release of up to 1033 erg of magnetic energy in the form of particle acceleration, heating, radiation, and bulk plasma motion. Displaying much larger energies, their stellar counterparts are expected to play a fundamental role in shaping the evolution of activity and rotation, as well as the environmental conditions around low-mass stars. While flares are now routinely detected in multi-wavelength observations across all spectral types and ages, direct evidence for stellar CMEs is almost non-existent. In this context, numerical simulations provide a valuable pathway to shed some light on the eruptive behavior in the stellar regime. In this talk, I will review recent results obtained from realistic modeling of CMEs in active stars. Emphasis will be given to M dwarfs, focusing on possible observable coronal signatures of these events using next-generation X-ray missions. Furthermore, an explanation for the lack of Type II radio bursts from CMEs in active M dwarfs despite their frequent flaring will be discussed. Finally, the implications and relevance of these numerical results will be considered in the context of future characterization of host star-exoplanet systems. Title: Threaded-field-line Model for the Low Solar Corona Powered by the Alfvén Wave Turbulence Authors: Sokolov, Igor V.; Holst, Bart van der; Manchester, Ward B.; Su Ozturk, Doga Can; Szente, Judit; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Tóth, Gábor; Jin, Meng; Gombosi, Tamas I. Bibcode: 2021ApJ...908..172S Altcode: We present an updated global model of the solar corona, including the transition region. We simulate the realistic three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field using the data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements and assume the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Alfvén wave turbulence and its nonlinear dissipation to be the only source for heating the coronal plasma and driving the solar wind. In closed-field regions, the dissipation efficiency in a balanced turbulence is enhanced. In the coronal holes, we account for a reflection of the outward-propagating waves, which is accompanied by the generation of weaker counterpropagating waves. The nonlinear cascade rate degrades in strongly imbalanced turbulence, thus resulting in colder coronal holes. The distinctive feature of the presented model is the description of the low corona as almost-steady-state low-beta plasma motion and heat flux transfer along the magnetic field lines. We trace the magnetic field lines through each grid point of the lower boundary of the global corona model, chosen at some heliocentric distance, R = Rb ∼ 1.1R⊙, well above the transition region. One can readily solve the plasma parameters along the magnetic field line from 1D equations for the plasma motion and heat transport together with the Alfvén wave propagation, which adequately describe the physics within the heliocentric distance range R⊙ < R < Rb, in the low solar corona. By interfacing this threaded-field-line model with the full MHD global corona model at r = Rb, we find the global solution and achieve a faster-than-real-time performance of the model on ∼200 cores. Title: Probing the Puzzle of Fermi Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Flares by Data-driven Global MHD Simulations Authors: Jin, M.; Petrosian, V.; Liu, W.; Nitta, N.; Omodei, N.; Effenberger, F.; Li, G.; Pesce-Rollins, M.; Allafort, A.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSH008..03J Altcode: With the ever growing number of long-duration, >100 MeV gamma-ray solar flares observed by Fermi/LAT, it poses a puzzle on the underlying particle acceleration and transport mechanisms. Further challenges come from (i) recent detection of gamma-rays in behind-the-limb (BTL) flares (e.g., the 2014 September 1 event), in which the gamma-ray emission region is located away from the BTL flare site by tens of degrees in heliographic longitude, and (ii) migration of gamma-ray emission centroids on the solar disk hours past the impulsive phase (e.g., the 2012 March 7 event). Most of the long-duration events are associated with fast CMEs, it is thus necessary to understand the role of CMEs and CME-driven shocks in these events. To probe this puzzle, we perform data-driven, global magnetohydrodynamics simulations of CMEs associated with the long-duration gamma-ray flares. We investigate the magnetic connectivity and evolution of the CME-driven shocks, and their relationship, in both space and time, with the observed gamma-ray emission. Specifically, we derive and track the time-varying shock parameters over the area that is magnetically connected to the gamma-ray emission region. Based on the modeling results, we discuss the causes of Fermi long-duration gamma-ray events. In particular, we address the possibility of CME shock-accelerated particles traveling back to the Sun to produce gamma-rays, a scenario that bears potentially paradigm-shifting implications on particle acceleration and transport in solar eruptive events including flares and CMEs. Title: Three-Dimensional Tomographic Reconstruction and MHD Modeling of the Solar Corona and Wind: WHPI Campaign Rotations CR-2219 and CR-2223 Authors: Lloveras, D.; Vásquez, A. M.; Nuevo, F.; Sachdeva, N.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Frazin, R. A.; Lamy, P.; Wojak, J. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSH021..07L Altcode: Accurate prediction of space weather conditions requires state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, which need to be validated with observational data. The recent deep minimum of solar activity, between solar cycles 24 and 25, renews the opportunity to study the Sun-Earth connection under the simplest solar and space environmental conditions. The international Whole Heliosphere and Planetary Interactions (WHPI) initiative aims at this specific purpose. In this work, we study two WHPI campaign periods, the July 2019 total solar eclipse Carrington rotation (CR)-2019, and the Parker Solar Probe and STEREO-A closest approach CR-2223. Based on narrowband EUV data provided by the SDO/AIA instrument we carry out tomographic reconstruction of the coronal electron density and temperature in the range of heliocentric heights r ≤ 1.25 Rsun. Based on visible light coronagraph data provided by the SoHO/LASCO-C2 instrument we carry out tomographic reconstruction of the coronal electron density and in the range of heliocentric heights ≈ 2.5-6.0 Rsun. Applying ADAPT-GONG synoptic magnetograms as boundary conditions, we use the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) to simulate the corona and solar wind for these time periods. We study the capability of the 3D-MHD model to reproduce the tomographic reconstructions in both closed and open coronal magnetic structures. In coronal holes in particular, we investigate the correlation between the reconstructed 3D distribution of the thermodynamical properties in the low corona and the 3D distribution of the physical parameters of the terminal solar wind of the model, discriminating its fast and slow components Title: Simulating Solar Maximum Conditions with the Alfven Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (AWSoM) Authors: Sachdeva, N.; van der Holst, B.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W.; Sokolov, I. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSH0290015S Altcode: The Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) is a physics-based solar corona model that solves magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations along with Alfven wave turbulence, radiative cooling and heat conduction. The Alfven wave pressure and dissipation account for solar wind acceleration and heating. AWSoM extends from the upper chromosphere up to 1 AU and beyond and includes the description of electron temperature and perpendicular and parallel proton temperature. AWSoM is driven by observations of the photospheric magnetic field, which are applied at the inner boundary. In this study, we use the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport) synchronic maps to drive our solar corona model. The ADAPT model uses observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field to produce an ensemble of magnetic field maps using a flux-transport model and data assimilation. We simulate solar maximum conditions using AWSoM and compare the results with SDO/AIA observations in the low corona and observations of solar wind density, speed and magnetic field at 1 AU (OMNI data). The background solar wind derived from our model provides the plasma environment into which Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) can be launched. We use the Gibson-Low Flux Rope model to initiate a CME and propagate it into the inner heliosphere. We validate the CME simulation by comparing the results with remote as well as in-situ observations from SOHO, SDO, STEREO, and WIND. Title: NextGen Space Weather Modeling Framework Using Physics, Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Quantification and GPUs Authors: Toth, G.; Zou, S.; Chen, Y.; Huan, X.; van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W.; Liemohn, M. W.; Chen, Y.; Huang, Z.; Gaenko, A. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSM015..05T Altcode: We have been recently awarded a major NSF/NASA grant from the SWQU program to develop the NextGen Space Weather Modeling Framework that will employ computational models from the surface of the Sun to the surface of Earth in combination with assimilation of observational data to provide optimal probabilistic space weather forecasting. The model will run efficiently on the next generation of supercomputers to predict space weather about one day or more before the impact occurs. The new project will concentrate on forecasting major space weather events generated by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Current space weather prediction tools employ first-principles and/or empirical models. While these provide useful information, their accuracy, reliability and forecast window need major improvements. Data assimilation has the potential to significantly improve model performance, as it has been successfully done in terrestrial weather forecast. To allow for the sparsity of satellite observations, however, a different data assimilation method will be employed. The new model will start from the Sun with an ensemble of simulations that span the uncertain observational and model parameters. Using real time and past observations, the model will strategically down-select to a high performing subset. Next, the down-selected ensemble will be extended by varying uncertain parameters and the simulation continued to the next data assimilation point. The final ensemble will provide a probabilistic forecast of the space weather impacts. While the concept is simple, finding the optimal algorithm that produces the best prediction with minimal uncertainty is a complex and very challenging task that requires developing, implementing and perfecting novel data assimilation and uncertainty quantification methods. To make these ensemble simulations run faster than real time, the most expensive parts of the model need to run efficiently on the current and future supercomputers, which employ graphical processing units (GPUs) in addition to the traditional multi-core CPUs. The main product of this project will be the Michigan Sun-To-Earth Model with Quantified Uncertainty and Data Assimilation (MSTEM-QUDA) that will be made available to the space physics community with an open source license. We will describe the main concept of the project and our initial progress. Title: Localizing the Source of Type II Emission Around a CME with the Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) Authors: Hegedus, A. M.; Kasper, J. C.; Manchester, W.; Lazio, J.; Romero-Wolf, A. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSH0090021H Altcode: The Earth's Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window, which has never been achieved. One application for such a system is observing type II bursts that track solar energetic particle acceleration occurring at Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shocks. This is one of the primary science targets for SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit. SunRISE is a NASA Heliophysics Mission of Opportunity that began Phase B (Formulation) in June 2020, and plans to launch for a 12-month mission in mid-2023. In this work we present an update to the data processing and science analysis pipeline for SunRISE and evaluate its performance in localizing type II bursts around a simulated CME.

To create realistic virtual type II input data, we employ a 2-temperature MHD simulation of the May 13th 2005 CME event, and superimpose realistic radio emission models on the CME-driven shock front, and propagate the signal through the simulated array. Data cuts based on different plasma parameter thresholds (e.g. de Hoffman-Teller velocity and angle between shock normal and the upstream magnetic field) are tested to get the best match to the true recorded emission. We take into account sources of angular scattering of the emission such as coronal turbulence. This model type II emission is then fed to the SunRISE data processing pipeline to ensure that the array can localize the emission. We include realistic thermal noise dominated by the galactic background at these low frequencies, as well as new sources of phase noise from positional uncertainty of each spacecraft. We test simulated trajectories of SunRISE and image what the array recovers, comparing it to the virtual input, finding that SunRISE can resolve the source of type II emission to within its prescribed goal of 1/3 the CME width. This shows that SunRISE will significantly advance the scientific community's understanding of type II burst generation, and consequently, acceleration of solar energetic particles at CMEs.

Complementary abstracts for SunRISE are presented by J. Kasper, A. Romero-Wolf, and J. Lazio. Title: Applying Machine Learning \to Understanding the Physical Processes of Solar Flare Onset Authors: Manchester, W.; Sun, H.; Chen, Y.; Liu, Y.; Jin, M. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMNG0040005M Altcode: We apply deep learning algorithms (Long Short Term Memory -LSTM) to train binary strong/weak classification models using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. We identify 35 active regions which show a sudden transition of the prediction score (above 0.7) indicating the likelihood of an M/X class flare several hours before the event. We examine the HMI vector magnetogram data for these events to determine if there are common circumstances and physical processes responsible for the magnetic energy and magnetic shear that informs the predictions. We further examine extrapolated nonlinear force-free coronal fields and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images to determine the structure of the coronal field and the associated electric currents and free magnetic energy increase prior to the flaring events. In many cases, we find development of strong horizontal fields running nearly parallel to the polarity inversion line to be a precursor to the flaring events. Title: Comparing the best ADAPT realizations from WSA, AWSoM and AWSoM-R Authors: Huang, Z.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Toth, G.; Arge, C. N.; Sachdeva, N.; Jones, S. I.; Manchester, W.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2020AGUFMSH0290028H Altcode: Solar corona models are typically driven by global photospheric magnetic field maps assembled from magnetograms. Magnetic field maps derived from different magnetogram sources (e.g. MDI, GONG, etc) can produce different results when used as boundary conditions. One of the commonly used synchronic maps is provided by the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport) model, which makes use of a flux transport model to evolve the regions where there are no observations. The ADAPT model uses the ensemble least-squares data assimilation method that account for model and observational uncertainties and provides 12 different realizations for a given moment in time. Previous studies have shown the same solar corona model running with 12 different realizations also provide different predicted solar wind values at 1 AU. In this presentation, we will use the ADAPT maps to drive the WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model, the AWSoM (Alfven-Wave driven Solar atmosphere Model) and the AWSoM-R (Alfven-Wave driven Solar atmosphere Model - Realtime) model. The coronal portion of the WSA model makes use of the coupled potential field source surface and Schatten current sheet models to derive the global coronal magnetic field from global maps of the photospheric field. The model then applies empirical formulas to specify the solar wind at the outer coronal boundary and a 1D kinematic model to predict solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic polarity anywhere in the inner heliosphere. AWSoM is a physics-based model solving the MHD equations together with radiative cooling, heat conduction and a phenomenological Alfven wave turbulence and dissipation model including wave reflection (proportional to the Alfvén speed gradients) and turbulent dissipation from the chromosphere to the heliosphere. The AWSoM-R model uses 1-D field line threads to simulate the region in the lower chromosphere to speed up the simulations. We will compare the predicted solar wind values at 1 AU with observations and use the WSA Prediction Metric developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to select the best ADAPT map realization(s) for the three models. We will investigate whether we can improve the prediction capability of the complex physics-based models like AWSoM and AWSoM-R using the insight gained from the inexpensive empirical WSA model. Title: Solar Flare Intensity Prediction With Machine Learning Models Authors: Jiao, Zhenbang; Sun, Hu; Wang, Xiantong; Manchester, Ward; Gombosi, Tamas; Hero, Alfred; Chen, Yang Bibcode: 2020SpWea..1802440J Altcode: 2019arXiv191206120J We develop a mixed long short-term memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hr time window 0-24, 6-30, 12-36, and 24-48 hr ahead of time using 6, 12, 24, and 48 hr of data (predictors) for each Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Active Region Patch (HARP). The model makes use of (1) the Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters as predictors and (2) the exact flare intensities instead of class labels recorded in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) data set, which serves as the source of the response variables. Compared to solar flare classification, the model offers us more detailed information about the exact maximum flux level, that is, intensity, for each occurrence of a flare. We also consider classification models built on top of the regression model and obtain better results in solar flare classifications as compared to Chen et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019SW002214). Our results suggest that the most efficient time period for predicting the solar activity is within 24 hr before the prediction time using the SHARP parameters and the LSTM model. Title: Thermodynamic Structure of the Solar Corona: Tomographic Reconstructions and MHD Modeling Authors: Lloveras, Diego G.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Nuevo, Federico A.; Mac Cormack, Cecilia; Sachdeva, Nishtha; Manchester, Ward; Van der Holst, Bartholomeus; Frazin, Richard A. Bibcode: 2020SoPh..295...76L Altcode: 2020arXiv200406815L We carry out a study of the global three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the quiescent inner solar corona (r <1.25 R⊙) by means of tomographic reconstructions and magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We use differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) and the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), in their latest versions. Two target rotations were selected from the solar minimum between Solar Cycles (SCs) 23 and 24 and the declining phase of SC 24. We report in quantitative detail on the 3D thermodynamic structure of the core and outer layers of the streamer belt, and of the high latitude coronal holes (CH), as revealed by the DEMT analysis. We report on the presence of two types of structures within the streamer belt, loops with temperature decreasing/increasing with height (dubbed down/up loops), as reported first in previous DEMT studies. We also estimate the heating energy flux required at the coronal base to keep these structures stable, found to be of order 105ergcm−2s−1, consistently with previous DEMT and spectroscopic studies. We discuss how these findings are consistent with coronal dissipation of Alfvén waves. We compare the 3D results of DEMT and AWSoM in distinct magnetic structures. We show that the agreement between the products of both techniques is the best so far, with an overall agreement ≲20 % , depending on the target rotation and the specific coronal region. In its current implementation the ASWsoM model cannot reproduce down loops though. Also, in the source region of the fast and slow components of the solar wind, the electron density of the AWSoM model increases with latitude, opposite to the trend observed in DEMT reconstructions. Title: Tuning the Exospace Weather Radio for Stellar Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Alvarado-Gómez, Julián D.; Drake, Jeremy J.; Fraschetti, Federico; Garraffo, Cecilia; Cohen, Ofer; Vocks, Christian; Poppenhäger, Katja; Moschou, Sofia P.; Yadav, Rakesh K.; Manchester, Ward B., IV Bibcode: 2020ApJ...895...47A Altcode: 2020arXiv200405379A Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on stars other than the Sun have proven very difficult to detect. One promising pathway lies in the detection of type II radio bursts. Their appearance and distinctive properties are associated with the development of an outward propagating CME-driven shock. However, dedicated radio searches have not been able to identify these transient features in other stars. Large Alfvén speeds and the magnetic suppression of CMEs in active stars have been proposed to render stellar eruptions "radio-quiet." Employing 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we study the distribution of the coronal Alfvén speed, focusing on two cases representative of a young Sun-like star and a mid-activity M-dwarf (Proxima Centauri). These results are compared with a standard solar simulation and used to characterize the shock-prone regions in the stellar corona and wind. Furthermore, using a flux-rope eruption model, we drive realistic CME events within our M-dwarf simulation. We consider eruptions with different energies to probe the regimes of weak and partial CME magnetic confinement. While these CMEs are able to generate shocks in the corona, those are pushed much farther out compared to their solar counterparts. This drastically reduces the resulting type II radio burst frequencies down to the ionospheric cutoff, which impedes their detection with ground-based instrumentation. Title: Predicting Solar Flares with Machine Learning: Investigating Solar Cycle Dependence Authors: Wang, Xiantong; Chen, Yang; Toth, Gabor; Manchester, Ward B.; Gombosi, Tamas I.; Hero, Alfred O.; Jiao, Zhenbang; Sun, Hu; Jin, Meng; Liu, Yang Bibcode: 2020ApJ...895....3W Altcode: 2019arXiv191200502W A deep learning network, long short-term memory (LSTM), is used to predict whether an active region (AR) will produce a flare of class Γ in the next 24 hr. We consider Γ to be ≥M (strong flare), ≥C (medium flare), and ≥A (any flare) class. The essence of using LSTM, which is a recurrent neural network, is its ability to capture temporal information on the data samples. The input features are time sequences of 20 magnetic parameters from the space weather Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager AR patches. We analyze ARs from 2010 June to 2018 December and their associated flares identified in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flare catalogs. Our results produce skill scores consistent with recently published results using LSTMs and are better than the previous results using a single time input. The skill scores from the model show statistically significant variation when different years of data are chosen for training and testing. In particular, 2015-2018 have better true skill statistic and Heidke skill scores for predicting ≥C medium flares than 2011-2014, when the difference in flare occurrence rates is properly taken into account. Title: Using a Higher-order Numerical Scheme to Study the Hall Magnetic Reconnection Authors: Yang, Yun; Manchester, Ward B., IV Bibcode: 2020ApJ...892...61Y Altcode: We use our recently developed higher-order conservation element and solution element scheme to investigate the evolutionary process of Hall magnetic reconnection. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to take advantage of higher-order numerical schemes to capture some fine structures very well with fewer grid points and reduced computational cost; (2) to develop a better understanding of the magnetic reconnection described by Hall MHD; as Birn et al. pointed out, the Hall effect is a critical ingredient in determining collisionless reconnection rates in the magnetosphere. The contributions of this paper mainly include the following: (1) we capture a two-step magnetic reconnection process and describe the formation mechanism; (2) the simulations show complex formation and interaction of magnetic islands and we provide the ways by which the magnetic islands form and disappear; (3) we find an oscillatory nature of the reconnection and the transfer of energy from magnetic field to kinetic energy and thermal energy; (4) we identify the merging process of the central magnetic island and the outflow region magnetic island. Title: Implementation of the Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) Mission Concept Authors: Lazio, J.; Kasper, J. C.; Romero-Wolf, A.; Bastian, T.; Cohen, C.; Landi, E.; Manchester, W.; Hegedus, A. M.; Schwadron, N.; Sokolov, I.; Bain, H. M.; Cecconi, B.; Hallinan, G.; Krupar, V.; Maksimovic, M.; Moschou, S. P.; Zaslavsky, A.; Lux, J. P.; Neilsen, T. L. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH31C3328L Altcode: The Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) would provide an entirely new view on particle acceleration and transport in the heliosphere by obtaining spatially and temporally resolved observations of Decametric-Hectometric (DH, < 15 MHz) Type II and Type III radio bursts.

In order to obtain the required angular resolution, SunRISE would be a free-flying interferometer. Building on more than 50 years of experience from ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), SunRISE would fly six small spacecraft in a supersynchronous geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in a passive formation. Their orbits are designed to keep them within approximately 6 km of each other. A space-based interferometer is required because most of the DH band does not penetrate the Earth's ionosphere, due to ionospheric absorption.

Each 6U spacecraft would carry only a single science radio designed to operate in the DH band. The radio would form spectra on-board, with pre-selected sub-bands identified for downlink. This science payload radio would be integrated into a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, allowing precise time to be measured on board the spacecraft as well. The spacecraft would be independent of each other, as is the practice for ground-based VLBI arrays.

On a regular basis, both science data and GPS timing would be downlinked. NASA's Deep Space Network antennas would be used for the downlink, with an efficient multiple spacecraft per aperture (MSPA) mode enabling the data from three spacecraft to be downlinked simultaneously. After orbit determination, the interferometric data processing would form images of Type II and Type III solar radio bursts and identify the locations of radio emission relative to the structures of CMEs.

SunRISE would leverage advances in software-defined radios, GPS navigation and timing, and small spacecraft technologies that have been demonstrated over the past few years. An Extended Phase A study of the SunRISE mission concept is scheduled to be completed in 2019 September.

Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Some of the information presented is pre-decisional and for planning and discussion purposes only. Title: Global Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation of EUV Waves and Shocks from the X8.2 Eruptive Flare on 2017 September 10 Authors: Jin, M.; Liu, W.; Cheung, C. M. M.; Nitta, N.; DeRosa, M. L.; Manchester, W.; Ofman, L.; Downs, C.; Petrosian, V.; Omodei, N.; Moschou, S. P.; Sokolov, I. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH32A..01J Altcode: As one of the largest flare-CME eruptions during solar cycle 24, the 2017 September 10 X8.2 flare event is associated with spectacular global EUV waves that transverse almost the entire visible solar disk, a CME with speed > 3000 km/s, which is one of the fastest CMEs ever recorded, and >100 MeV Gamma-ray emission lasting for more than 12 hours. All these unique observational features pose new challenge on current numerical models to reproduce the multi-wavelength observations. To take this challenge, we simulate the September 10 event using a global MHD model (AWSoM: Alfven Wave Solar Model) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework and initiate CMEs by Gibson-Low flux rope. We assess several important observed and physical inputs (e.g., flux rope properties, polar magnetic field) in the model to better reproduce the multi-wavelength observations. We find that the simulated EUV wave morphology and kinematics are sensitive to the orientation of the initial flux rope introduced to the source active region. An orientation with the flux-rope axis in the north-south direction produces the best match to the observations, which suggests that EUV waves may potentially be used to constrain the flux-rope geometry for such limb or behind-the-limb eruptions that lack good magnetic field observations. By further combining with the white light and radio observations, we demonstrate the flux rope-corona interaction can greatly impact the early phase shock evolution (e.g., geometry and shock parameters) therefore plays a significant role for particle acceleration near the Sun in this event. By propagating the CMEs into the heliosphere and beyond the Earth and Mars orbits, we compare the model results with the in-situ measurements and demonstrate the importance of input polar magnetic field on the realistic CME modeling therefore space weather forecasting. Title: Asymmetries in the Martian system Authors: Regoli, L.; Bougher, S. W.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSM33D3229R Altcode: The induced Martian magnetosphere is a particularly complex system due to different dynamic properties that are part of the system. The lack of a global dynamo and the presence of a relatively tenuous atmosphere causes the induced magnetosphere to be significantly smaller than a formal magnetosphere and the boundaries are largely affected by changes in the upstream conditions. In addition, the presence of strong localized magnetic fields in the southern hemisphere, commonly referred to as crustal fields, adds an extra level of complexity, with changes in the pressure balance through changes in the local magnetic pressure and localized reconnection constantly changing the magnetic topology of the induced magnetosphere. This introduces a strong north/south asymmetry in the system that affects the location of different boundaries as well as the ionospheric escape, by changing the altitude of the main ionospheric peak. The dynamical heating of the atmosphere by the solar radiation also induces asymmetries in the atmospheric densities, which in turn affect the ion production and subsequent ionospheric escape as well. These can be north/south asymmetries (depending on the season) but also dawn/dusk, creating a particular escape pattern that can be observed in simulations under controlled conditions. We present results from a coupled set of models with changing parameters based on a well-defined parameter space in order to study their effect on the asymmetries present in the Martian system. These parameters include interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, solar wind dynamics pressure, atmospheric dynamics and location of the crustal fields. Title: The Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) Mission Concept Authors: Kasper, J. C.; Lazio, J.; Romero-Wolf, A.; Bain, H. M.; Bastian, T.; Cohen, C.; Landi, E.; Manchester, W.; Hegedus, A. M.; Schwadron, N.; Sokolov, I.; Cecconi, B.; Hallinan, G.; Krupar, V.; Maksimovic, M.; Moschou, S. P.; Zaslavsky, A.; Lux, J. P.; Neilsen, T. L. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH33A..02K Altcode: The Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) would provide an entirely new view on particle acceleration and transport in the inner heliosphere by obtaining spatially and temporally resolved observations of solar Decametric-Hectometric (DH, < 15 MHz) radio bursts. These bursts are produced by electrons energized near expanding CMEs (Type II) and released by solar flares (Type III). SunRISE would track DH bursts from 2 RS to 20 RS in order to achieve two science objectives. The first objective is to discriminate competing hypotheses for the source mechanism of CME-associated SEPs by measuring the location of Type II bursts relative to expanding CMEs. By locating Type II emission relative to the overall structure of CMEs, SunRISE would reveal where particle acceleration occurs and determine if specific properties of CMEs lead to DH bursts. The second objective is to determine if a broad magnetic connection between active regions and interplanetary space is responsible for the wide longitudinal extent of some SEPs by imaging the field lines traced by Type III bursts from active regions through the corona. By tracing the radio emission from energetic electrons as they travel along magnetic field lines, SunRISE would reveal the field line topology, and its time variation, from active regions into interplanetary space.

SunRISE would consist of six 6U small spacecraft in a supersynchronous geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in a passive formation. Forming a synthetic aperture and observing at frequencies that cannot be observed on Earth due to ionospheric absorption, SunRISE would leverage advances in software-defined radios, GPS navigation and timing, and small spacecraft technologies. These advances have been flown over the past few years, making this concept finally affordable and low-risk.

An Extended Phase A study of the SunRISE mission concept is scheduled to be completed in 2019 September. This paper presents a summary of the concept study.

Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Some of the information presented is pre-decisional and for planning and discussion purposes only. Title: Predicting Solar Flares using Time Sequence Based Machine Learning Models Authors: Wang, X.; Toth, G.; Chen, Y.; Manchester, W.; Jiao, Z.; Sun, H.; Sun, Z.; Hero, A. O.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH34A..03W Altcode: In the last few years machine learning methods are becoming popular for predicting solar flares. We use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) dataset to analyze thousands of active regions' magnetic field and derived parameters (total unsigned flux, free magnetic energy, etc) using various machine learning algorithms. In this work we first use the SHARP summary parameters to predict the maximum flare intensity in a certain time window through a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, which is a particular type of a recurrent neural network. The dataset we are using contains 3399 active regions from 2010 to 2015. Furthermore, we will use the full vector magnetogram images to train a combined LSTM and feature extraction convolutional neural network (CNN). This approach allows capturing more detailed spatial-temporal features of the magnetic field. Our results show that using a time sequence to predict the maximum flare intensity can achieve a better Heidke Skill Score (HSS) than using a single frame as the input. The HSS for predicting the maximum flare class in the next 24 hours is about 0.35 for M/X flares and 0.55 for C/M/X flares. Title: Interpreting LSTM Prediction on Solar Flare Eruption with Time-series Clustering Authors: Sun, Hu; Manchester, Ward; Jiao, Zhenbang; Wang, Xiantong; Chen, Yang Bibcode: 2019arXiv191212360S Altcode: We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model employing data in the form of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters calculated from data in proximity to the magnetic polarity inversion line where the flares originate. We train the the LSTM model for binary classification to provide a prediction score for the probability of M/X class flares to occur in next hour. We then develop a dimension-reduction technique to reduce the dimensions of SHARP parameter (LSTM inputs) and demonstrate the different patterns of SHARP parameters corresponding to the transition from low to high prediction score. Our work shows that a subset of SHARP parameters contain the key signals that strong solar flare eruptions are imminent. The dynamics of these parameters have a highly uniform trajectory for many events whose LSTM prediction scores for M/X class flares transition from very low to very high. The results demonstrate the existence of a few threshold values of SHARP parameters that when surpassed indicate a high probability of the eruption of a strong flare. Our method has distilled the knowledge of solar flare eruption learnt by deep learning model and provides a more interpretable approximation, which provides physical insight to processes driving solar flares. Title: Validation of the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model (AWSoM) with Observations from the Low Corona to 1 au Authors: Sachdeva, Nishtha; van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward B.; Tóth, Gabor; Chen, Yuxi; Lloveras, Diego G.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Lamy, Philippe; Wojak, Julien; Jackson, Bernard V.; Yu, Hsiu-Shan; Henney, Carl J. Bibcode: 2019ApJ...887...83S Altcode: 2019arXiv191008110S We perform a validation study of the latest version of the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. To do so, we compare the simulation results of the model with a comprehensive suite of observations for Carrington rotations representative of the solar minimum conditions extending from the solar corona to the heliosphere up to the Earth. In the low corona (r < 1.25 {\text{}}{R}⊙ ), we compare with EUV images from both Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory-A/EUVI and Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and to three-dimensional (3D) tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph observations (2.55 < r < 6.0{\text{}}{R}⊙ ). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from InterPlanetary Scintillation observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 au. The model now reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, proton temperature, and density. AWSoM offers an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions. Title: Nonequilibrium ionization effects on coronal plasma diagnostics and elemental abundance measurements Authors: Shi, T.; Landi, E.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH11C3402S Altcode: Plasma diagnostics and elemental abundance measurements are crucial to help us understand the formation and dynamics of the solar wind. Here we use a theoretical solar wind model to study the effect of non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) on plasma diagnostic techniques applied to line intensities emitted by the fast solar wind. We find that NEI almost always changes the spectral line intensities with up to 120% difference for the lighter elements and for higher charge states of Fe even below 1.5 solar radii (Rs). The measured plasma density, temperature, and differential emission measure (DEM) are only slightly affected by NEI. However, NEI significantly affects the first ionization potential (FIP) bias and abundance ratio measurements, producing up to a factor of 4 error at 1.5 Rs for Mg/Ne, Fe/S, and Ar/Fe ratios when assuming EI. We conclude that it is very important to consider the NEI effect when synthesizing spectral line intensities and measuring the FIP bias and elemental abundance. Title: Improved AWSoM Modeling of the First Two PSP Encounters Authors: van der Holst, B.; Chandran, B. D. G.; Borovikov, D.; Manchester, W.; Klein, K. G.; Kasper, J. C.; Case, A. W.; Korreck, K. E.; Larson, D. E.; Livi, R.; Stevens, M. L.; Whittlesey, P. L.; Bale, S.; Pulupa, M.; Malaspina, D.; Bonnell, J. W.; Harvey, P.; Goetz, K.; Dudok de Wit, T.; MacDowall, R. J. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH13C3438V Altcode: NASA's Parker Solar Probe (PSP) has collected data for the first two encounters. We have modeled the solar corona and inner heliosphere of these encounters using the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM, van der Holst et al. 2014) with GONG-ADAPT magnetograms. AWSoM allows us to interpret the PSP data in the context of coronal heating via low-frequency Alfvén wave turbulence with partial wave reflection due to Alfvén speed gradients. In van der Holst et al. (2019), we made predictions for the first encounter. In our new simulations we show how improved partitioning of the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton temperatures and better grid design result in significantly improved comparison with the PSP data. We also show the simulated distance of PSP to the heliospheric current sheet, the magnetic connectivity of PSP to the photosphere, and whether PSP was in the fast or slow wind. Title: Solar Flare Classification and Prediction with Data Science Authors: Chen, Y.; Manchester, W.; Gombosi, T. I.; Hero, A.; Wang, X. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH34A..05C Altcode: We present our machine learning efforts, which show great promise towards early predictions of solar flare events. First, we present a data pre-processing pipeline that is built to extract useful data from multiple sources -- Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and SDO/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) -- to prepare inputs for machine learning algorithms. Second, we adopt deep learning algorithms to extract/select features from raw HMI and AIA data. Third, we train deep learning models that capture both the spatial and temporal information from HMI magnetogram data for strong/weak flare classification and for predictions of flare intensities. Fourth, we show that using the ML-derived features gives almost as good performance as using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files, i.e. features manually constructed based on physical principles. Last, for our strong/weak flare classification model, case studies show a significant increase in the prediction score around 20 hours before strong solar flare events, which implies that early precursors appear at least 20 hours prior to the peak of a flare event. Title: AWSoM Simulation of waves, turbulence and shocks associated with the September 10, 2014 CME/ICME Authors: Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Kasper, J. C. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH41A..04M Altcode: We simulate the September 10, 2014 CME/ICME event and its propagation to Earth using the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework. This fast CME that reached the Earth with an average transit time of 920 km/s and produced wide spread disturbances in the corona and heliosphere. We conduct detailed comparisons of this CME simulation with observations of a range phenomena including waves with SDO/AIA and coronal shocks with LASCO C2/C3 and the corresponding type II radio burst. We examine the ICME structure with STEREO/SECCHI and in situ observations from ACE and Wind, and we examine the impact on low frequency turbulence observed at 1AU with Wind. Furthermore, we track the simulated CME-driven shock surfaces and derive the shock parameters (plasma frequency, theta BN and compression ratio), which we relate to the observed type II radio burst. We finally discuss the role of wave reflection, compression and dissipation on the turbulent energy changes at the shock and in the sheath and ICME ejecta. Title: Validating the Alfven Wave Solar Atmosphere (AWSoM) Model from the Low Corona to 1 AU Authors: Sachdeva, N.; van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W.; Toth, G.; Lloveras, D. G.; Vásquez, A. M.; Lamy, P.; Jackson, B. V.; Henney, C. J. Bibcode: 2019AGUFMSH51A..04S Altcode: The coronal/solar wind model, the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) follows a self-consistent physics-based global description of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. AWSoM includes a description of low-frequency forward and counter-propagating Alfven waves that non-linearly interact resulting in a turbulent cascade and dissipative heating. In addition, there are separate temperatures for electrons and protons with collisional and collisionless heat conduction applied only to electrons and radiative losses based on the Chianti model. AWSoM extends from the base of the transition region where the strong density gradient necessitates self-consistent treatment of Alfven wave reflection and balanced turbulence. It includes a stochastic heating model as well as a description of proton parallel and perpendicular temperatures and kinetic instabilities based on temperature anisotropy and plasma beta.To validate AWSoM, we model Carrington rotations representative of solar minimum conditions and compare the simulation results with a comprehensive suite of observations. In the low corona (r < 1.25 Rs), we compare with EUV images from both STEREOA/EUVI and SDO/AIA and to three-dimensional tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density based on these same data. We also compare the model to tomographic reconstructions of the electron density from SOHO/LASCO observations (2.55 < r < 6 Rs). In the heliosphere, we compare model predictions of solar wind speed with velocity reconstructions from Interplanetary Scintillation observations. For comparison with observations near the Earth, we use OMNI data. Our results show that the AWSoM model performs well in quantitative agreement with the observations between the inner corona and 1 AU. In the lower corona, the model and the tomographic reconstructions agree within 20%-30% on average. The model also reproduces the fast solar wind speed in the polar regions. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, electron temperature and density. The AWSoM model provides a comprehensive tool to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere with current and future solar missions as well as being well suited for space weather predictions. Title: Identifying Solar Flare Precursors Using Time Series of SDO/HMI Images and SHARP Parameters Authors: Chen, Yang; Manchester, Ward B.; Hero, Alfred O.; Toth, Gabor; DuFumier, Benoit; Zhou, Tian; Wang, Xiantong; Zhu, Haonan; Sun, Zeyu; Gombosi, Tamas I. Bibcode: 2019SpWea..17.1404C Altcode: 2019arXiv190400125C In this paper we present several methods to identify precursors that show great promise for early predictions of solar flare events. A data preprocessing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), to prepare inputs for machine learning algorithms. Two classification models are presented: classification of flares from quiet times for active regions and classification of strong versus weak flare events. We adopt deep learning algorithms to capture both spatial and temporal information from HMI magnetogram data. Effective feature extraction and feature selection with raw magnetogram data using deep learning and statistical algorithms enable us to train classification models to achieve almost as good performance as using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. Case studies show a significant increase in the prediction score around 20 hr before strong solar flare events. Title: ngGONG: The Next Generation GONG - A New Solar Synoptic Observational Network Authors: Hill, Frank; Hammel, Heidi; Martinez-Pillet, Valentin; de Wijn, A.; Gosain, S.; Burkepile, J.; Henney, C. J.; McAteer, J.; Bain, H. M.; Manchester, W.; Lin, H.; Roth, M.; Ichimoto, K.; Suematsu, Y. Bibcode: 2019BAAS...51g..74H Altcode: 2019astro2020U..74H The white paper describes a next-generation GONG, a ground-based geographically distributed network of instrumentation to continually observe the Sun. This would provide data for solar magnetic field research and space weather forecasting, and would extend the time coverage of helioseismology. Title: Tomography of the Solar Corona with the Wide-Field Imager for the Parker Solar Probe Authors: Vásquez, Alberto M.; Frazin, Richard A.; Vourlidas, Angelos; Manchester, Ward B.; van der Holst, Bart; Howard, Russell A.; Lamy, Philippe Bibcode: 2019SoPh..294...81V Altcode: The Wide-field Imager for the Parker Solar Probe (PSP/WISPR) comprises two telescopes that record white-light total brightness [B ] images of the solar corona. Their fields of view cover a widely changing range of heliocentric heights over the 24 highly eccentric orbits planned for the mission. In this work, the capability of PSP/WISPR data to carry out tomographic reconstructions of the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the coronal electron density is investigated. Based on the precise orbital information of the mission, B -images for Orbits 1, 12, and 24 are synthesized from a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model of the corona. For each orbit, the time series of synthetic images is used to carry out a tomographic reconstruction of the coronal electron density and results are compared with the model. As the PSP perihelion decreases, the range of heights that can be tomographically reconstructed progressively shifts to lower values, and the period required to gather the data decreases. For Orbit 1 tomographic reconstruction is not possible. For Orbit 12, tomographic reconstruction is possible in the heliocentric height range ≈5 -15 R⊙, over a region spanning up to ≈160∘ in Carrington longitude, with data gathered over a ≈3.4 day-long period. For Orbit 24, tomographic reconstruction is possible in the heliocentric height range ≈3 -10 R⊙, over a region spanning up to ≈170∘ in Carrington longitude, with data gathered over a ≈2.8 day-long period. Title: SPECTRUM: Synthetic Spectral Calculations for Global Space Plasma Modeling Authors: Szente, J.; Landi, E.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Toth, G.; van der Holst, B.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2019ApJS..242....1S Altcode: High-resolution spectroscopy is the most accurate tool for measuring the properties of the solar corona. However, interpreting measured line intensities and line profiles emitted by the optically thin solar corona is complicated by line-of-sight (LOS) integration, which leads to measuring weighted averages of the plasma properties along the LOS. LOS integration effects can be removed by combining CHIANTI spectral emissivities with a 3D global model of the solar corona to calculate the contribution of all structures along the LOS to the measured intensities. In this paper, we describe SPECTRUM, a postprocessing tool that can calculate the emission from the optically thin solar corona by combining 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) space plasma simulation results with the CHIANTI database. Doppler-shifted, nonthermal line broadening due to low-frequency Alfvén waves and anisotropic proton and isotropic electron temperatures can be individually taken into account during calculations. Synthetic spectral calculations can then be used for model validation, for interpretation of solar observations, and for forward modeling purposes. SPECTRUM is implemented within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and is therefore publicly available. In this paper, we describe the SPECTRUM module and show its applications by comparing synthetic spectra using simulation data by the 3D MHD Alfvén Wave Solar Model with observations done by the Hinode/Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer during Carrington rotations 2063 and 2082. Title: Synoptic Studies of the Sun as a Key to Understanding Stellar Astrospheres Authors: Martinez Pillet, Valentin; Hill, Frank; Hammel, Heidi B.; de Wijn, Alfred G.; Gosain, Sanjay; Burkepile, Joan; Henney, Carl; McAteer, R. T. James; Bain, Hazel; Manchester, Ward; Lin, Haosheng; Roth, Markus; Ichimoto, Kiyoshi; Suematsu, Yoshinori Bibcode: 2019BAAS...51c.110M Altcode: 2019astro2020T.110M; 2019arXiv190306944M Ground-based solar observations provide key contextual data (i.e., the "big picture") to produce a complete description of the only astrosphere we can study in situ: our Sun's heliosphere. This white paper outlines the current paradigm for ground-based solar synoptic observations, and indicates those areas that will benefit from focused attention. Title: Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations for the First and Second Parker Solar Probe Encounter Authors: van der Holst, Bart; Chandran, B. D. G.; Borovikov, D.; Klein, K. G.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Kasper, J. C. Bibcode: 2019shin.confE..49V Altcode: We examine Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) simulations of the first and second Parker Solar Probe (PSP) encounter. AWSoM allows us to interpret the PSP data in the context of coronal heating via Alfvén wave turbulence. The coronal heating and acceleration is addressed via outward-propagating low-frequency Alfvén waves that are partially reflected by Alfvén speed gradients. The nonlinear interaction of these counter-propagating waves results in a turbulent energy cascade. To apportion the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton temperatures, we employ an improved version of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating as described by Chandran et al. 2011. Attention is given to the plasma mass density, velocity, and magnetic fields, temperature anisotropy, and wave turbulence. We will also describe the large-scale structures that PSP might have passed through, for instance whether PSP was in the fast or slow wind and when PSP crossed the heliospheric current sheet. Title: Applying Machine Learning and Numerical Simulations to Understanding the Physical Processes of Solar Flare Onset Authors: Manchester, Ward; Sun, Hu; Chen, Yang; Liu, Yang; Jin, Meng Bibcode: 2019shin.confE.200M Altcode: We apply deep learning algorithms to train binary strong/weak classification models using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. We identify several active regions which show a sudden transition of the prediction score indicating near certainty of an M/X class flare several hours before the event. We examine the HMI vector magnetogram data for these events to determine if there are common features in the photospheric magnetic field related to the energy build up and a possible eruption threshold. We also compare observed magnetic field to simulations of magnetic flux emergence to identify the physical processes driving the magnetic evolution toward eruptive behavior. Title: Nonequilibrium ionization effects on coronal plasma diagnostics and elemental abundance measurements Authors: Shi, Tong; Landi, Enrico; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2019shin.confE..71S Altcode: Plasma diagnostics and elemental abundance measurements are crucial to help us understand the formation and dynamics of the solar wind. It is commonly assumed that the solar wind is in equilibrium ionization (EI). Here we use a theoretical solar wind model to study whether the non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) has any effect on the fast solar wind. We find that the measured plasma density and temperature are only slightly affected, but NEI systematically shifts the differential emission measure (DEM) towards lower temperature on all heights. In addition, NEI significantly affects the first ionization potential (FIP) bias and abundance measurements. The EI assumption can lead up to a factor of 4 error at 1.5 solar radii for Mg/Ne, Fe/S, and Ar/Fe line pairs. Therefore, it is very important to consider the NEI effect when doing the DEM diagnostics and measuring the FIP bias and elemental abundance. Title: Validating the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) from the lower corona to 1 AU Authors: Sachdeva, Nishtha; Manchester, Ward; van der Holst, Bart; Toth, Gabor; Vasquez, Alberto; Jackson, Bernard; Lloveras, Diego G.; Mac Cormack, Cecilia; Yu, Hsiu-Shan Bibcode: 2019EGUGA..21.1465S Altcode: We examine the steady state three-dimensional MHD simulations of the solar corona carried out with the new version of the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) within the Space Weather Modeling framework (SWMF). AWSoM addresses the acceleration and heating of the solar corona via the interaction between counter-propagating Alfven waves. This non-linear interaction between the outward propagating low-frequency Alfven waves and those partially reflected by the speed gradients results in a turbulent energy cascade. The model uses physics-based partitioning of wave-dissipated heat between isotropic electron and anisotropic proton temperatures. To validate the AWSoM model, we select rotations representative of the solar minimum and maximum conditions and compare our simulation results with a comprehensive suite of observations. We use three-dimensional tomographic reconstructions of the electron temperature and density in the inner corona (r < 1.25 Rsun) based on multi-wavelength extreme ultraviolet images from STEREO/EUVI and SDO/AIA. For comparison with observations made near the Earth, we compare the model with OMNI data. At different radial distances between 20 Rsun and 1 AU, we compare the model with reconstructions made with Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) observations. Observations are compared with the simulated model results of plasma mass density, velocity, and magnetic fields, temperature anisotropy, and wave turbulence. Our results at solar minimum show that the improved AWSoM model performs well in agreement with the observations between inner corona and 1 AU. In the lower corona the model and the tomographic reconstructions match within a 20 % accuracy. Near the Earth, our model shows good agreement with observations of solar wind velocity, electron temperature and magnetic field. However, the electron density at 1 AU is overpredicted by the model for the solar minimum simulations. While this model version is already an improvement over previous predictions, we plan to validate our model using more Carrington rotations. The AWSoM model presents an extensive application to study the solar corona and larger heliosphere in concert with current and future solar missions. Title: Predictions for the First Parker Solar Probe Encounter Authors: van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Klein, K. G.; Kasper, J. C. Bibcode: 2019ApJ...872L..18V Altcode: 2019arXiv190203921V We examine Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) predictions of the first Parker Solar Probe (PSP) encounter. We focus on the 12 day closest approach centered on the first perihelion. AWSoM allows us to interpret the PSP data in the context of coronal heating via Alfvén wave turbulence. The coronal heating and acceleration is addressed via outward-propagating low-frequency Alfvén waves that are partially reflected by Alfvén speed gradients. The nonlinear interaction of these counter-propagating waves results in a turbulent energy cascade. To apportion the wave dissipation to the electron and anisotropic proton temperatures, we employ the results of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating as described by Chandran et al. We find that during the first encounter, PSP was in close proximity to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and in the slow wind. PSP crossed the HCS two times, at 2018 November 3 UT 01:02 and 2018 November 8 UT 19:09, with perihelion occurring on the south of side of the HCS. We predict the plasma state along the PSP trajectory, which shows a dominant proton parallel temperature causing the plasma to be firehose unstable. Title: Global Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation of EUV Waves and Shocks from the X8.2 Eruptive Flare on 2017 September 10 Authors: Jin, Meng; Liu, Wei; Cheung, Mark; Nitta, Nariaki; Manchester, Ward; Ofman, Leon; Downs, Cooper; Petrosian, Vahe; Omodei, Nicola Bibcode: 2018csc..confE..66J Altcode: As one of the largest flare-CME eruptions during solar cycle 24, the 2017 September 10 X8.2 flare event is associated with spectacular global EUV waves that transverse almost the entire visible solar disk, a CME with speed > 3000 km/s, which is one of the fastest CMEs ever recorded, and >100 MeV Gamma-ray emission lasting for more than 12 hours. All these unique observational features pose new challenge on current numerical models to reproduce the multi-wavelength observations. To take this challenge, we simulate the September 10 event using a global MHD model (AWSoM: Alfven Wave Solar Model) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework and initiate CMEs by Gibson-Low flux rope. We conduct detailed comparisons of the synthesized EUV images with SDO/AIA observations of global EUV waves. We find that the simulated EUV wave morphology and kinematics are sensitive to the orientation of the initial flux rope introduced to the source active region. An orientation with the flux-rope axis in the north-south direction produces the best match to the observations, which suggests that EUV waves may potentially be used to constrain the flux-rope geometry for such limb or behind-the-limb eruptions that lack good magnetic field observations. We also compare observed and simulated EUV intensities in multiple AIA channels to perform thermal seismology of the global corona. Furthermore, we track the 3D CME-driven shock surface in the simulation and derive the time-varying shock parameters together with the dynamic magnetic connectivity between the shock and the surface of the Sun, with which we discuss the role of CME-driven shocks in the long-duration Gamma-ray events. Title: Multispecies and Multifluid MHD Approaches for the Study of Ionospheric Escape at Mars Authors: Regoli, L. H.; Dong, C.; Ma, Y.; Dubinin, E.; Manchester, W. B.; Bougher, S. W.; Welling, D. T. Bibcode: 2018JGRA..123.7370R Altcode: A detailed model-model comparison between the results provided by a multispecies and a multifluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code for the escape of heavy ions in the Martian-induced magnetosphere is presented. The results from the simulations are analyzed and compared against a statistical analysis of the outflow of heavy ions obtained by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN/Suprathermal and Thermal Ion Composition instrument over an extended period of time in order to estimate the influence of magnetic forces in the ion escape. Both MHD models are run with the same chemical reactions and ion species in a steady state mode under idealized solar conditions. Apart from being able to reproduce the asymmetries observed in the ion escape, it is found that the multifluid approach provides results that are closer to those inferred from the ion data. It is also found that the j × B force term is less effective in accelerating the ions in the models when compared with the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN results. Finally, by looking at the contribution of the plume and the ion escape rates at different distances along the tail with the multifluid model, it is also found that the escape of heavy ions has important variabilities along the tail, meaning that the apoapsis of a spacecraft studying atmospheric escape can affect the estimates obtained. Title: Global Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation of EUV Waves and Shocks from the X8.2 Eruptive Flare on 2017 September 10 Authors: Jin, Meng; Liu, Wei; Cheung, Mark; Nitta, Nariaki; Manchester, Ward; Ofman, Leon; Downs, Cooper; Petrosian, Vahe; Omodei, Nicola Bibcode: 2018shin.confE.207J Altcode: As one of the largest flare-CME eruptions during solar cycle 24, the 2017 September 10 X8.2 flare event is associated with spectacular global EUV waves that transverse almost the entire visible solar disk, a CME with speed > 3000 km/s, which is one of the fastest CMEs ever recorded, and >100 MeV Gamma-ray emission lasting for more than 12 hours. All these unique observational features pose new challenge on current numerical models to reproduce the multi-wavelength observations. To take this challenge, we simulate the September 10 event using a global MHD model (AWSoM: Alfven Wave Solar Model) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework and initiate CMEs by Gibson-Low flux rope. We conduct detailed comparisons of the synthesized EUV images with SDO/AIA observations of global EUV waves. We find that the simulated EUV wave morphology and kinematics are sensitive to the orientation of the initial flux rope introduced to the source active region. An orientation with the flux-rope axis in the north-south direction produces the best match to the observations, which suggests that EUV waves may potentially be used to constrain the flux-rope geometry for such limb or behind-the-limb eruptions that lack good magnetic field observations. We also compare observed and simulated EUV intensities in multiple AIA channels to perform thermal seismology of the global corona. Furthermore, we track the 3D CME-driven shock surface in the simulation and derive the time-varying shock parameters together with the dynamic magnetic connectivity between the shock and the surface of the Sun, with which we discuss the role of CME-driven shocks in the long-duration Gamma-ray events. Title: Coronal magnetic field extrapolation with AWSoM MHD relaxation Authors: Shi, Tong; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2018shin.confE..87S Altcode: Coronal mass ejections are known to be the major source of disturbances in the solar wind capable of affecting geomagnetic environments. In order for accurate predictions of such space weather events, a data-driven simulation is needed. The first step towards such a simulation is to extrapolate the magnetic field from the observed field that is only at the solar surface. In this poster, we present results of a new code of magnetic field extrapolation with direct magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) relaxation using the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) in the Space Weather Modeling Framework. The obtained field is self-consistent with our model and can be used later in time-dependent simulations without modifications of the equations. We use the Low and Lou analytical solution to test our results and they reach a good agreement. We show robustness of our code that the MHD solution can be stabilized even with noise applied to the magnetic field at the bottom boundary. This new extrapolation method is then applied to the magnetic field from the observed data, demonstrating the capabilities of this code. Title: Extended MHD modeling of the steady solar corona and the solar wind Authors: Gombosi, Tamas I.; van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward B.; Sokolov, Igor V. Bibcode: 2018LRSP...15....4G Altcode: 2018arXiv180700417G The history and present state of large-scale magnetohydrodynamic modeling of the solar corona and the solar wind with steady or quasi-steady coronal physics is reviewed. We put the evolution of ideas leading to the recognition of the existence of an expanding solar atmosphere into historical context. The development and main features of the first generation of global corona and solar wind models are described in detail. This historical perspective is also applied to the present suite of global corona and solar wind models. We discuss the evolution of new ideas and their implementation into numerical simulation codes. We point out the scientific and computational challenges facing these models and discuss the ways various groups tried to overcome these challenges. Next, we discuss the latest, state-of-the art models and point to the expected next steps in modeling the corona and the interplanetary medium. Title: Tracking Solar Type II Bursts with the Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) Authors: Hegedus, Alexander; Kasper, Justin; Manchester, Ward; Lazio, Joseph Bibcode: 2018shin.confE.227H Altcode: The Earth's Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window, which has never been achieved. One application for such a system is observing type II bursts tracking solar energetic particle acceleration Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shocks. In this work we create a simulated data processing pipeline for the pathfinder mission SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit, and evaluate its performance in the task of localizing these type II bursts. Title: Tracking Solar Type II Bursts with Space Based Radio Interferometers Authors: Hegedus, Alexander M.; Kasper, Justin C.; Manchester, Ward B. Bibcode: 2018AAS...23240501H Altcode: The Earth’s Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into many astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image the low frequency window for the first time. One application is observing type II bursts tracking solar energetic particle acceleration in Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). In this work we create a simulated data processing pipeline for several space based radio interferometer (SBRI) concepts and evaluate their performance in the task of localizing these type II bursts.Traditional radio astronomy software is hard coded to assume an Earth based array. To circumvent this, we manually calculate the antenna separations and insert them along with the simulated visibilities into a CASA MS file for analysis. To create the realest possible virtual input data, we take a 2-temperature MHD simulation of a CME event, superimpose realistic radio emission models from the CME-driven shock front, and propagate the signal through simulated SBRIs. We consider both probabilistic emission models derived from plasma parameters correlated with type II bursts, and analytical emission models using plasma emission wave interaction theory.One proposed SBRI is the pathfinder mission SunRISE, a 6 CubeSat interferometer to circle the Earth in a GEO graveyard orbit. We test simulated trajectories of SunRISE and image what the array recovers, comparing it to the virtual input. An interferometer on the lunar surface would be a stable alternative that avoids noise sources that affect orbiting arrays, namely the phase noise from positional uncertainty and atmospheric 10s-100s kHz noise. Using Digital Elevation Models from laser altimeter data, we test different sets of locations on the lunar surface to find near optimal configurations for tracking type II bursts far from the sun. Custom software is used to model the response of different array configurations over the lunar year, combining ephemerides of the sun and moon to correlate the virtual data. We analyze the pros and cons of all approaches and offer recommendations for SRBIs that track type II bursts. Title: MHD Modeling of ICMEs and Heliosphere Disturbances with Application to Space Weather Forecasting Authors: Manchester, Ward; Jin, Meng; van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, Igor Bibcode: 2018tess.conf41103M Altcode: We examine CME simulation results derived from the Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low EEGGL, which was recently installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The EEGGL tool allows us to simulate observed CME events by automatically determining parameters for the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with data from synoptic magnetograms and CME coronagraph observations. The CME simulations are carried out with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which allow us to simulate the propagation of ICMEs from the low corona through the solar wind to 1 AU. We compare model predictions of the spatial structure and time-evolution of heliospheric disturbances to in situ observations at 1AU. Attention is given to the ability of the simulations to reproduce the observed plasma mass density, velocity, and magnetic fields. We probe the validity and capability of the numerical models and question their potential to forecast solar wind conditions and ICME disturbances, while looking forward to the future capabilities of Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter. Title: Tracking Solar Type II Bursts to .5 AU with Radio Interferometers on the Lunar Surface Authors: Hegedus, Alexander Michael; Kasper, Justin Christophe; Manchester, Ward Bibcode: 2018tess.conf22003H Altcode: The Earth's Ionosphere limits radio measurements on its surface, blocking out any radiation below 10 MHz. Valuable insight into various astrophysical processes could be gained by having a radio interferometer in space to image this frequency window for the first time. One proposed incarnation of this is the pathfinder mission SunRISE, an interferometer to orbit around the Earth in the form of multiple smallsats working to observe Type II bursts tracking solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration in Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). An interferometer on the lunar surface would be a stable alternative that avoids both the positional uncertainty and 10s-100s kHz noise that would affect orbiting arrays. Arrays could also be larger, having better resolution at lower frequencies, allowing us to image Type II bursts and track gradual SEP events out to .5 AU, far further out than a smaller orbiting array.

Using Digital Elevation Models partially from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter's Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument, we test different sets of locations on the lunar surface to find near optimal configurations for planar arrays for tracking Solar Radio Bursts far from the sun. Custom software is used to model the response of different array configurations over the lunar year, combining ephemerides of the sun and moon with LOLA data to correctly correlate the virtual data. To create the realest possible virtual input data, we take a 2 fluid MHD simulation of a CME event, and superimpose realistic radio emission models on top of it, and propagate the signal through various simulated lunar interferometers. We consider both probabilistic emission models derived from data cuts of various Type II burst correlated variables, and analytical emission models using plasma emission wave interaction theory. We conclude by offering recommendations for the location and geometry of a future lunar radio interferometer. Title: Global Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation of EUV Waves and Shocks from the X8.2 Eruptive Flare on 2017 September 10 Authors: Jin, Meng; Liu, Wei; Cheung, Chun Ming Mark; Nitta, Nariaki; Manchester, Ward; Ofman, Leon; Downs, Cooper; Petrosian, Vahe; Omodei, Nicola Bibcode: 2018tess.conf31905J Altcode: As one of the largest flare-CME eruptions during solar cycle 24, the 2017 September 10 X8.2 flare event is associated with spectacular global EUV waves that transverse almost the entire visible solar disk, a CME with speed > 3000 km/s, which is one of the fastest CMEs ever recorded, and >100 MeV Gamma-ray emission lasting for more than 12 hours. All these unique observational features pose new challenge on current numerical models to reproduce the multi-wavelength observations. To take this challenge, we simulate the September 10 event using a global MHD model (AWSoM: Alfven Wave Solar Model) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework and initiate CMEs by Gibson-Low flux rope. We conduct detailed comparisons of the synthesized EUV images with SDO/AIA observations of global EUV waves. We find that the simulated EUV wave morphology and kinematics are sensitive to the orientation of the initial flux rope introduced to the source active region. An orientation with the flux-rope axis in the north-south direction produces the best match to the observations, which suggests that EUV waves may potentially be used to constrain the flux-rope geometry for such limb or behind-the-limb eruptions that lack good magnetic field observations. We also compare observed and simulated EUV intensities in multiple AIA channels to perform thermal seismology of the global corona. Furthermore, we track the 3D CME-driven shock surface in the simulation and derive the time-varying shock parameters together with the dynamic magnetic connectivity between the shock and the surface of the Sun, with which we discuss the role of CME-driven shocks in the long-duration Gamma-ray events. Title: The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions Authors: Green, Lucie M.; Török, Tibor; Vršnak, Bojan; Manchester, Ward; Veronig, Astrid Bibcode: 2018SSRv..214...46G Altcode: 2018arXiv180104608G Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt. Title: Magnetic field extrapolation with MHD relaxation using AWSoM Authors: Shi, T.; Manchester, W.; Landi, E. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH13A2458S Altcode: Coronal mass ejections are known to be the major source of disturbances in the solar wind capable of affecting geomagnetic environments. In order for accurate predictions of such space weather events, a data-driven simulation is needed. The first step towards such a simulation is to extrapolate the magnetic field from the observed field that is only at the solar surface. Here we present results of a new code of magnetic field extrapolation with direct magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) relaxation using the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) in the Space Weather Modeling Framework. The obtained field is self-consistent with our model and can be used later in time-dependent simulations without modifications of the equations. We use the Low and Lou analytical solution to test our results and they reach a good agreement. We also extrapolate the magnetic field from the observed data. We then specify the active region corona field with this extrapolation result in the AWSoM model and self-consistently calculate the temperature of the active region loops with Alfvén wave dissipation. Multi-wavelength images are also synthesized. Title: A Spectroscopic Study of the Energy Deposition in the Low Corona: Connecting Global Modeling to Observations Authors: Szente, J.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH41C..06S Altcode: We are looking for signatures of coronal heating process using a physically consistent 3D MHD model of the global corona. Our approach is based on the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM), with a domain ranging from the upper chromosphere (50,000K) to the outer corona, and the solar wind is self-consistently heated and accelerated by the dissipation of low-frequency Alfvén waves. Taking into account separate electron and anisotropic proton heating, we model the coronal plasma at the same time and location as observed by Hinode/EIS, and calculate the synthetic spectra that we compare with the observations. With the obtained synthetic spectra, we are able to directly calculate line intensities, line width, thermal and nonthermal motions, line centroids, Doppler shift distributions and compare our predictions to real measurements. Our results directly test the extent to which Alfvénic heating is present in the low corona. Title: Tomographic Validation of the AWSoM Model of the Inner Corona During Solar Minima Authors: Manchester, W.; Vásquez, A. M.; Lloveras, D. G.; Mac Cormack, C.; Nuevo, F.; Lopez-Fuentes, M.; Frazin, R. A.; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH51C2512M Altcode: Continuous improvement of MHD three-dimensional (3D) models of the global solar corona, such as the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), requires testing their ability to reproduce observational constraints at a global scale. To that end, solar rotational tomography based on EUV image time-series can be used to reconstruct the 3D distribution of the electron density and temperature in the inner solar corona (r < 1.25 Rsun). The tomographic results, combined with a global coronal magnetic model, can further provide constraints on the energy input flux required at the coronal base to maintain stable structures. In this work, tomographic reconstructions are used to validate steady-state 3D MHD simulations of the inner corona using the latest version of the AWSoM model. We perform the study for selected rotations representative of solar minimum conditions, when the global structure of the corona is more axisymmetric. We analyse in particular the ability of the MHD simulation to match the tomographic results across the boundary region between the equatorial streamer belt and the surrounding coronal holes. The region is of particular interest as the plasma flow from that zone is thought to be related to the origin of the slow component of the solar wind. Title: Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework Authors: Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH34B..05W Altcode: The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes. Metrics are calculated to examine how the simulated solar wind drivers impact forecast skill. These results illustrate the current state of long-lead-time forecasting and the promise of this technology for operational use. Title: The Interaction of Coronal Mass Ejections with Alfvenic Turbulence Authors: Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH42B..06M Altcode: We provide a first attempt to understand the interaction between Alfven wave turbulence, kinetic instabilities and temperature anisotropies in the environment of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME). The impact of a fast CME on the solar corona causes turbulent energy, thermal energy and dissipative heating to increase by orders of magnitude, and produces conditions suitable for a host of kinetic instabilities. We study these CME-induced effects with the recently developed Alfven Wave Solar Model, with which we are able to self-consistently simulate the turbulent energy transport and dissipation as well as isotropic electron heating and anisotropic proton heating. Furthermore, the model also offers the capability to address the effects of firehose, mirror mode, and cyclotron kinetic instabilities on proton energy partitioning, all in a global-scale numerical simulation. We find turbulent energy greatly enhanced in the CME sheath, strong wave reflection at the shock, which leads to wave dissipation rates increasing by more than a factor of 100. In contrast, wave energy is greatly diminished by adiabatic expansion in the flux rope. Finally, we find proton temperature anisotropies are limited by kinetic instabilities to a level consistent with solar wind observations. Title: The Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) Mission Authors: Kasper, J. C.; Lazio, J.; Alibay, F.; Amiri, N.; Bastian, T.; Cohen, C.; Landi, E.; Hegedus, A. M.; Maksimovic, M.; Manchester, W.; Reinard, A.; Schwadron, N.; Cecconi, B.; Hallinan, G.; Krupar, V. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSH41B2760K Altcode: Radio emission from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a direct tracer of particle acceleration in the inner heliosphere and potential magnetic connections from the lower solar corona to the larger heliosphere. Energized electrons excite Langmuir waves, which then convert into intense radio emission at the local plasma frequency, with the most intense acceleration thought to occur within 20 R_S. The radio emission from CMEs is quite strong such that only a relatively small number of antennas is required to detect and map it, but many aspects of this particle acceleration and transport remain poorly constrained. Ground-based arrays would be quite capable of tracking the radio emission associated with CMEs, but absorption by the Earth's ionosphere limits the frequency coverage of ground-based arrays (nu > 15 MHz), which in turn limits the range of solar distances over which they can track the radio emission (< 3 R_S). The state-of-the-art for tracking such emission from space is defined by single antennas (Wind/WAVES, Stereo/SWAVES), in which the tracking is accomplished by assuming a frequency-to-density mapping; there has been some success in triangulating the emission between the spacecraft, but considerable uncertainties remain. We describe the Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) mission concept: A constellation of small spacecraft in a geostationary graveyard orbit designed to localize and track radio emissions in the inner heliosphere. Each spacecraft would carry a receiving system for observations below 25 MHz, and SunRISE would produce the first images of CMEs more than a few solar radii from the Sun. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Title: Two-way Effects of an ICME Event at Mars Authors: Regoli, L.; Fang, X.; Dong, C.; Tenishev, V.; Lee, Y.; Bougher, S. W.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2017AGUFMSM33B2644R Altcode: The influence of enhanced solar activity on planetary magnetospheres is a subject of great interest. At Mars, given the small size of its induced magnetosphere compared to the size of the planet, a gravitationally bound oxygen corona extends above the bow shock upstream of the planet. These oxygen atoms can be ionized by different processes and precipitate into the upper atmosphere of Mars. When they deposit their energy, they heat the thermosphere locally according to the path they follow which is mainly determined by the magnetic field configuration within the induced magnetosphere. While previous studies have investigated the energy deposition during interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events, this study focuses on the effect that an enhanced thermosphere/ionosphere has in the surrounding environment, including the increased escape. For this, we use a combination of models comprising a global circulation model of the Martian atmosphere (MGITM), a 3D model of the hot oxygen corona (AMPS), a multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model of the induced magnetosphere and a test particle code (MCPIT) to propagate the precipitating ions into the exobase. Title: The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution Authors: Manchester, Ward; Kilpua, Emilia K. J.; Liu, Ying D.; Lugaz, Noé; Riley, Pete; Török, Tibor; Vršnak, Bojan Bibcode: 2017SSRv..212.1159M Altcode: 2017SSRv..tmp...90M As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona. Title: Eruptive event generator based on the Gibson-Low magnetic configuration Authors: Borovikov, D.; Sokolov, I. V.; Manchester, W. B.; Jin, M.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017JGRA..122.7979B Altcode: 2017arXiv170801635B Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), a kind of energetic solar eruptions, are an integral subject of space weather research. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling, which requires powerful computational resources, is one of the primary means of studying the phenomenon. With increasing accessibility of such resources, grows the demand for user-friendly tools that would facilitate the process of simulating CMEs for scientific and operational purposes. The Eruptive Event Generator based on Gibson-Low flux rope (EEGGL), a new publicly available computational model presented in this paper, is an effort to meet this demand. EEGGL allows one to compute the parameters of a model flux rope driving a CME via an intuitive graphical user interface. We provide a brief overview of the physical principles behind EEGGL and its functionality. Ways toward future improvements of the tool are outlined. Title: Spectral Analysis of Heating Processes in the Alfvén Wave Driven Global Corona Model Authors: Szente, Judit; Toth, Gabor; Landi, Enrico; Manchester, Ward; van der Holst, Bart; Gombosi, Tamas Bibcode: 2017shin.confE..78S Altcode: Among numerous theories explaining the existence of the hot solar corona and continuous solar wind, one of the most successful one is based on wave heating. This approach describes Alfvén waves traveling along the magnetic field lines carrying sufficient energy to heat the corona and accelerate the solar wind. The wave energy is deposited through turbulent dissipation, which leaves identifiable traces in the plasma. Spectral observations have suggested the existence of wave heating: via the decrease of non-thermal spectral line broadening, and via charge state ratios of specific minor-ions reflecting the heating history of the solar wind plasma. We determine the extent to which Alfvén-waves drive the solar corona using a combination of spectral modeling and observational techniques.

In this study, we reevaluate observational evidence of the coronal heating process: we simulate observations of the global corona and its spectral line emission with the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) and compare the synthetic data with observations. Title: Simulating the Initiation and Liftoff Phases of CMEs Authors: Shi, Tong; Manchester, Ward; Landi, Enrico Bibcode: 2017shin.confE..15S Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are known to be the major source of disturbances in the solar wind capable of affecting geomagnetic environments. However, we are currently lacking in key information during the early stage of the CMEs, including the nature of the triggering mechanisms, that we are unable to accurately predict CME onset, initial propagation, and possible impact on the planetary systems. Here we will present preliminary results on a data-driven CME simulation with the Space Weather Modeling Framework. Performing such a simulation involves several steps: extrapolating the coronal magnetic field from active region vector magnetogram observations with nonlinear force free field model; using this field as the initial condition for a steady state simulation; and then driving the eruption by applying converging motion at the polarity inversion line at the lower boundary. This data-driven simulation will help us to support or restrict the mechanisms that provide reliable magnetic, kinematics, and thermal properties of a CME in its early stage, and is a required first step towards an accurate space weather forecast. Title: The Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) Mission Authors: Lazio, Joseph; Kasper, Justin; Maksimovic, Milan; Alibay, Farah; Amiri, Nikta; Bastian, Tim; Cohen, Christina; Landi, Enrico; Manchester, Ward; Reinard, Alysha; Schwadron, Nathan; Cecconi, Baptiste; Hallinan, Gregg; Hegedus, Alex; Krupar, Vratislav; Zaslavsky, Arnaud Bibcode: 2017EGUGA..19.5580L Altcode: Radio emission from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a direct tracer of particle acceleration in the inner heliosphere and potential magnetic connections from the lower solar corona to the larger heliosphere. Energized electrons excite Langmuir waves, which then convert into intense radio emission at the local plasma frequency, with the most intense acceleration thought to occur within 20 RS. The radio emission from CMEs is quite strong such that only a relatively small number of antennas is required to detect and map it, but many aspects of this particle acceleration and transport remain poorly constrained. Ground-based arrays would be quite capable of tracking the radio emission associated with CMEs, but absorption by the Earth's ionosphere limits the frequency coverage of ground-based arrays (ν ≳ 15 MHz), which in turn limits the range of solar distances over which they can track the radio emission (≲ 3RS). The state-of-the-art for tracking such emission from space is defined by single antennas (Wind/WAVES, Stereo/SWAVES), in which the tracking is accomplished by assuming a frequency-to-density mapping; there has been some success in triangulating the emission between the spacecraft, but considerable uncertainties remain. We describe the Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) mission concept: A constellation of small spacecraft in a geostationary graveyard orbit designed to localize and track radio emissions in the inner heliosphere. Each spacecraft would carry a receiving system for observations below 25 MHz, and SunRISE would produce the first images of CMEs more than a few solar radii from the Sun. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Title: Coronal Jets Simulated with the Global Alfvén Wave Solar Model Authors: Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W. B., IV; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...834..123S Altcode: This paper describes a numerical modeling study of coronal jets to understand their effects on the global corona and their contribution to the solar wind. We implement jets into a well-established three-dimensional, two-temperature magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar corona model employing Alfvén-wave dissipation to produce a realistic solar-wind background. The jets are produced by positioning a compact magnetic dipole under the solar surface and rotating the boundary plasma around the dipole's magnetic axis. The moving plasma drags the magnetic field lines along with it, ultimately leading to a reconnection-driven jet similar to that described by Pariat et al. We compare line-of-sight synthetic images to multiple jet observations at EUV and X-ray bands, and find very close matches in terms of physical structure, dynamics, and emission. Key contributors to this agreement are the greatly enhanced plasma density and temperature in our jets compared to previous models. These enhancements arise from the comprehensive thermodynamic model that we use and, also, our inclusion of a dense chromosphere at the base of our jet-generating regions. We further find that the large-scale corona is affected significantly by the outwardly propagating torsional Alfvén waves generated by our polar jet, across 40° in latitude and out to 24 R⊙. We estimate that polar jets contribute only a few percent to the steady-state solar-wind energy outflow. Title: Anatomy of Depleted Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Authors: Kocher, M.; Lepri, S. T.; Landi, E.; Zhao, L.; Manchester, W. B., IV Bibcode: 2017ApJ...834..147K Altcode: We report a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) containing distinct periods of anomalous heavy-ion charge state composition and peculiar ion thermal properties measured by ACE/SWICS from 1998 to 2011. We label them “depleted ICMEs,” identified by the presence of intervals where C6+/C5+ and O7+/O6+ depart from the direct correlation expected after their freeze-in heights. These anomalous intervals within the depleted ICMEs are referred to as “Depletion Regions.” We find that a depleted ICME would be indistinguishable from all other ICMEs in the absence of the Depletion Region, which has the defining property of significantly low abundances of fully charged species of helium, carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen. Similar anomalies in the slow solar wind were discussed by Zhao et al. We explore two possibilities for the source of the Depletion Region associated with magnetic reconnection in the tail of a CME, using CME simulations of the evolution of two Earth-bound CMEs described by Manchester et al. Title: Chromosphere to 1 AU Simulation of the 2011 March 7th Event: A Comprehensive Study of Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Tóth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C. A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...834..172J Altcode: 2016arXiv161108897J We perform and analyze the results of a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and extends to 24 R⊙. Coupling AWSoM to an inner heliosphere model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulations), optically thin radiative cooling, and Alfvén-wave turbulence that accelerates and heats the solar wind. The Alfvén-wave description is physically self-consistent, including non-Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond STEREO A. A detailed comparison study is performed using remote as well as in situ observations. Although the flux rope structure is not compared directly due to lack of relevant ejecta observation at 1 au in this event, our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven extreme ultraviolet [EUV] waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, “double-front” in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., shock propagation direction, shock properties at STEREO A). Title: Data-constrained Coronal Mass Ejections in a Global Magnetohydrodynamics Model Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Tóth, G.; Mullinix, R. E.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2017ApJ...834..173J Altcode: 2016arXiv160505360J We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO/LASCO, and STEREO/COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson-Low flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a). Title: The Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) Authors: Alibay, F.; Lazio, J.; Kasper, J. C.; Amiri, N.; Bastian, T.; Cohen, C.; Landi, E.; Manchester, W.; Reinard, A.; Schwadron, N.; Hegedus, A. M.; Maksimovic, M.; Zaslavsky, A.; Cecconi, B.; Hallinan, G.; Krupar, V. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH41B2540A Altcode: Radio emission from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a direct tracer of the particle acceleration in the inner heliosphere and potential magnetic connections from the lower solar corona to the larger heliosphere. However, many aspects of this particle acceleration remain poorly constrained. The radio emission from CMEs is quite strong such that only a relatively small number of antennas is required to map it. However, the state-of-the-art for tracking such emission is only defined by single antennas (Wind/WAVES, Stereo/SWAVES) in which the tracking is accomplished by assuming a frequency-to-density mapping. These are limited to tracking CMEs to only a few solar radii before the frequencies of radio emission drop below the Earth's ionospheric cutoff. Triangulation between the STEREO/SWAVES and Wind/WAVES instruments have provided some initial constraints on particle acceleration sites at larger distances (lower frequencies), but the uncertainties remain considerable. We present the Sun Radio Imaging Space Experiment (SunRISE) mission concept: a space-based array designed to localize such radio emissions. This low-cost constellation is composed of small spacecraft placed in a geostationary graveyard orbit, each carrying an HF radio receiver. In this concept, each spacecraft would perform concurrent observations below 25 MHz, which would then be correlated on the ground to produce the first images of CMEs more than a few solar radii from the Sun. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Title: Studying the thermodynamics of coronal jets through modeling- and observational diagnostics techniques Authors: Szente, J.; Manchester, W.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; van der Holst, B.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH21E2577S Altcode: We present a comprehensive study of simulated and observed coronal jets using EUV and soft X-ray narrow-band images and EUV high resolution spectra. The goal of our study is to understand the thermodynamics and time evolution of jets and their impact on the coronal plasma. We simulate jets with a full 3D MHD coronal model with separate electron and proton temperatures and heating due to Alfvén wave turbulence. Due to the fast dynamics of the small-scale eruptive reconnections at the footpoint of the jet, it is essential to undertake this effort with a model with separate electron and proton temperatures to interpret the observed signatures in EUV and soft X-ray bands. The obtained synthetic images are compared to observations done by the instrumentations of SDO, STEREO and Hinode space crafts. The turbulence in this model is ideally suited to analyze the spectroscopic signatures, such as line broadening. The 3-hour long simulation of jets interacting with the global solar corona shows plasma responses potentially being observed with the upcoming Solar Probe Plus mission. Title: New Capabilities for Adaptive Mesh Simulation Use within FORWARD Authors: Mathews, N.; Flyer, N.; Gibson, S. E.; Kucera, T. A.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSM32A..05M Altcode: The multiscale nature of the solar corona can pose challenges to numerical simulations. Adaptive meshes are often used to resolve fine-scale structures, such as the chromospheric-coronal interface found in prominences and the transition region as a whole. FORWARD is a SolarSoft IDL package designed as a community resource for creating a broad range of synthetic coronal observables from numerical models and comparing them to data. However, to date its interface with numerical simulations has been limited to regular grids. We will present a new adaptive-grid interface to FORWARD that will enable efficient synthesis of solar observations. This is accomplished through the use of hierarchical IDL structures designed to enable finding nearest-neighbor points quickly for non-uniform grids. This facilitates line-of-sight integrations that can adapt to the unequally spaced mesh. We will demonstrate this capability for the Alfven-Wave driven SOlar wind Model (AWSOM), part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). In addition, we will use it in the context of a prominence-cavity model, highlighting new capabilities in FORWARD that allow treatment of continuum absorbtion as well as EUV line emission via dual populations (chromosphere-corona). Title: Forecasting CMEs at 1AU with a Flux Rope-Driven Model Authors: Manchester, W.; Jin, M.; van der Holst, B.; Toth, G.; Mullinix, R.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2016AGUFMSH11C2249M Altcode: Until recently, operational models of coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation omitted magnetic drivers and imposed CMEs with field-free flows. While capable of predicting the arrival times of solar wind disturbances, such models are incapable of predicting the magnetic ejecta of a CME, which is the fundamental driver of large geomagnetic storms. Here, we report on a significant advancement in the development and delivery of a magnetic flux rope-driven operational CME model Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low EEGGL that was recently installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). This new model simulates the propagation of CMEs from Sun to 1AU by combining the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with the state-of-art Alfven Wave Solar Model. Using synoptic magnetcogram and coronagraph observations, the model can predict the long-term evolution of the CME magnetic fields in interplanetary space. Following the work of Jin et al. (2016), we examine case studies of CMEs at 1 AU to illustrate the capabilities and limitations of this space weather forecasting tool. Title: Data Constrained Coronal Mass Ejections in A Global Magnetohydrodynamics Model Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Mullinix, R. E.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2016usc..confE.120J Altcode: We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SDO/HMI, SOHO/LASCO, and STEREO/COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator Gibson-Low (EEGGL), we present a method to derive Gibson-Low (GL) flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms are shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 AU. Title: Coronal response to EUV jets modeled with the Alfvén Wave Solar Model Authors: Szente, Judith; Toth, Gabor; Manchester, Ward B., IV; van der Holst, Bartholomeus; Landi, Enrico; Gombosi, Tamas; DeVore, Carl R.; Antiochos, Spiro K. Bibcode: 2016usc..confE..72S Altcode: We study the thermodynamics of jet phenomena with the use of multiple wavelength SDO-AIA observations [e.g. Adams (2014) and Moore (2015)] combined with advanced numerical simulations made with AWSoM coronal model [van der Holst (2014)]. AWSoM provides a fully three-dimensional, magnetohydrodynamic description of the solar atmosphere heated by the dissipation of kinetic Alfvén waves in a self-consistent manner. In addition, the model's multi-species thermodynamics with electron heat conduction provides for the accurate construction of synthetic line-of-sight images of phenomena. We implement our jets in the solar wind with a magnetic dipole twisted about axis, resulting in EUV jets similar in topology and dynamics as being observed. We show that the coronal atmosphere responds at a large-scale as torsional Alfvén waves propagate into the outer corona (up to 24 solar radii and 40 degrees in latitude), introduced by the small-scale eruptive reconnection events at the footpoint of the jet. Title: Threaded-Field-Lines Model for the Low Solar Corona Powered by the Alfven Wave Turbulence Authors: Sokolov, Igor V.; van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward B.; Ozturk, Doga Can Su; Szente, Judit; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Tóth, Gabor; Jin, Meng; Gombosi, Tamas I. Bibcode: 2016arXiv160904379S Altcode: We present an updated global model of the solar corona, including the transition region. We simulate the realistic tree-dimensional (3D) magnetic field using the data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements and assume the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Alfvén wave turbulence and its non-linear dissipation to be the only source for heating the coronal plasma and driving the solar wind. In closed field regions the dissipation efficiency in a balanced turbulence is enhanced. In the coronal holes we account for a reflection of the outward propagating waves, which is accompanied by generation of weaker counter-propagating waves. The non-linear cascade rate degrades in strongly imbalanced turbulence, thus resulting in colder coronal holes. The distinctive feature of the presented model is the description of the low corona as almost-steady-state low-beta plasma motion and heat flux transfer along the magnetic field lines. We trace the magnetic field lines through each grid point of the lower boundary of the global corona model, chosen at some heliocentric distance, $R=R_{b}\sim1.1\ R_\odot$ well above the transition region. One can readily solve the plasma parameters along the magnetic field line from 1D equations for the plasma motion and heat transport together with the Alfvén wave propagation, which adequately describe physics within the heliocentric distances range, $R_{\odot}<R<R_{b}$, in the low solar corona. By interfacing this threaded-field-lines model with the full MHD global corona model at $r=R_{b}$, we find the global solution and achieve a faster-than-real-time performance of the model on $\sim200$ cores. Title: 3-D Flux Rope Modeling of CME-like Plasma Dynamics in the PBEX HelCat Experiment Authors: Fisher, Dustin Mark; Zhang, Y.; Wallace, B.; Gilmore, M.; Manchester, W.; Arge, C. N. Bibcode: 2016shin.confE..51F Altcode: The Plasma Bubble Expansion Experiment (PBEX) [1] at UNM uses a plasma gun to launch jet and spheromak magnetic configurations into the Helicon-Cathode (HelCat) [2] basic plasma device. The short scale lengths and dense, collisional nature of the plasma allow for a parameter regime and dynamics that greatly match those found in the lower density plasma of the solar wind. This provides unique experimental access to studying possible CME propagation into the solar wind. Moreover, the numerous diagnostic capabilities of HelCat allow for validation of numerical codes that aim to make predictive models of real-time solar events.

Preliminary modeling and analysis of the PBEX experiment is presented using the highly-developed 3-D, MHD, BATS-R-US [3,4] solar coronal model of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) [3,5] code from the University of Michigan. BATS-R-US employs an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) grid that enables the capture and resolution of shock structures and current sheets which can subsequently be compared to high-resolution magnetogram data. Such modeling may provide insights into the role of heating and reconnection in CME-like events.

Initial modeling uses the Titov-Demoulin (TD)[6] flux rope model to mimic plasma bubbles launched from the PBEX gun. A spheromak-based flux model may also be used in the ongoing modeling. Title: Achieving Forecasts in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere with Lead Times of a Few Days Authors: Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; Manchester, W.; Sharma, S. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH11A2374M Altcode: Forecasting space weather requires the development of first-principles-based models for the coupled Sun-Earth System. To achieve lead times of a few days for disturbances in planetary thermospheres and ionospheres, models of the solar wind propagating through the heliosphere are required. An active research community has achieved a suite of models that describe conditions within, and coupling between, the solar wind, the Earth's magnetosphere and the ionosphere. At least one version of each model in the suite is available for broad community use and investigation. While these models represent an important step towards the goal of achieving accurate space weather forecasts, it is recognized that certain physical processes are not represented in these models, with unknown impact on the forecasts. We suggest an approach towards improved space weather forecasts that emphasizes model evaluation techniques, providing detailed information on how the physical processes represented in the models affect forecasts based on those models. Such detailed information permits the models to be used for investigating science questions, and permits observations to be the basis for improving the models and increasing scientific understanding. In this talk, we present upper atmosphere forecasting results using community models of the coupled Sun-Earth system. We describe our approach to analyzing the physics of ionospheric storms as represented in the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model developed at the University of Michigan. Such analysis involves both an approach to model diagnostics and the use of a comprehensive set of observations. We compare forecast results for high-speed solar wind stream storms and storms initiated by solar coronal mass ejections. First-principle and empirically based approaches to coupling between the solar wind and ionosphere are compared. These comparisons provide insight into the strengths and limitations, and areas for future improvement, of first-principles models as they are used to forecast the Sun-Earth interaction. Title: Modeling AWSoM CMEs with EEGGL: A New Approach for Space Weather Forecasting Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C. A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH43C..02J Altcode: The major source of destructive space weather is coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, our understanding of CMEs and their propagation in the heliosphere is limited by the insufficient observations. Therefore, the development of first-principals numerical models plays a vital role in both theoretical investigation and providing space weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the simulation of CME propagation from the Sun to 1AU by combining the analytical Gibson & Low (GL) flux rope model with the state-of-art solar wind model AWSoM. We also provide an approach for transferring this research model to a space weather forecasting tool by demonstrating how the free parameters of the GL flux rope can be prescribed based on remote observations via the new Eruptive Event Generator by Gibson-Low (EEGGL) toolkit. This capability allows us to predict the long-term evolution of the CME in interplanetary space. We perform proof-of-concept case studies to show the capability of the model to capture physical processes that determine CME evolution while also reproducing many observed features both in the corona and at 1 AU. We discuss the potential and limitations of this model as a future space weather forecasting tool. Title: Simulation of Active-Region-Scale Flux Emergence Authors: Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH13A2433M Altcode: Shear flows long observed in solar active regions are now understood to be a consequence of the Lorentz force that develops from a complex interaction between magnetic fields and the thermal pressure of the Sun's gravitationally stratified atmosphere. The shearing motions transport magnetic flux and energy from the submerged portion of the field to the corona providing the necessary energy for flares, filament eruptions and CMEs. To further examine this shearing process, we simulate flux emergence on the scale of active regions with a large-scale model of the near surface convection zone constructed on an adaptive spherical grid. This model is designed to simulate flux emerging on the scale of active regions from a depth of 30 Mm. Here, we show results of a twisted flux rope emerging through the hierarchy of granular convection, and examine the flow patterns that arise as the flux approaches the photosphere. We show how these organized flows driven by the Lorentz force cause the coronal field evolve to a highly non-potential configuration capable of driving solar eruptions such as CMEs and flares. Title: The Physics of CME Propagation Authors: Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH42A..03M Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been the subject of intense investigation since their discovery more than forty years ago, which have produced enormous advances in our understanding of the structure and dynamics of CMEs. Here, we examine the results of numerical simulations to identify a wide range of physical processes that govern the interaction of CMEs with the corona and the larger heliosphere. We focus on processes which determine the bulk transport of plasma and magnetic flux including kinematic effects, magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and magnetic reconnection. We compare simulation results to remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements to both verify the models and explain a number of observed properties of interplanetary CMEs. Title: Dynamics of Polar Jets from the Chromosphere to the Corona: Mass, Momentum and Energy Transfer Authors: Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; DeVore, C. R.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH23D..05S Altcode: Coronal jets, routinely observed by multiple instruments at multiple wavelengths, provide a unique opportunity to understand the relationships between magnetic field topology, reconnection, and solar wind heating and acceleration. We simulate coronal jets with the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) [van der Holst (2014)] and focus our study on the thermodynamical evolution of the plasma. AWSoM solves the two-temperature MHD equations with electron heat conduction, which not only addresses the thermodynamics of individual species, but also allows for the construction of synthetic images from the EUV and soft X-ray wavelength range. Our jet model takes the form of a slowly rotating bipole field imbedded in the open magnetic field of a coronal hole; a topology suggested by observations. We follow the formation and evolution of polar jets starting from the chromosphere and extending into the outer corona. The simulations show small-scale eruptive reconnection events that self-consistently heat and accelerate the solar wind. Our results provide a quantitative comparison to observations made in the EUV and X-ray spectrum. Title: New Publicly Available EEGGL Tool for Simulating Coronal Mass Ejections. Authors: Sokolov, I.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Gombosi, T. I.; Jin, M.; Mullinix, R.; Taktakishvili, A.; Chulaki, A.; Toth, G. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMSH21B2403S Altcode: We present and demonstrate a new tool, EEGGL (Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration) for simulating CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections). CMEs are among the most significant space weather events, producing the radiation hazards (via the diffuse shock acceleration of the Solar Energetic Particles - SEPs), the interplanetary shock waves as well as the geomagnetic activity due to the drastic changes of the interplanetary magnetic field within the "magnetic clouds" ("flux ropes"). Some of this effects may be efficiently simulated using the "cone model", which is employed in the real-time simulations of the ongoing CMEs at the NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The cone model provides a capability to predict the location, time, width and shape of the hydrodynamic perturbation in the upper solar corona (at ~0.1 AU), which can be used to drive the heliospheric simulation (with the ENLIL code, for example). At the same time the magnetic field orientation in this perturbation is uncertain within the cone model, which limits the capability of the geomagnetic activity forecast. The new EEGGL tool http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/analysis/EEGGL/recently developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center in collaboration with the University of Michigan provides a new capability for both evaluating the magnetic field configuration resulting from the CME and tracing the CME through the solar corona. In this way not only the capability to simulate the magnetic field evolution at 1 AU may be achieved, but also the more extensive comparison with the CME observations in the solar corona may be achieved. Based on the magnetogram and evaluation of the CME initial location and speed, the user may choose the active region from which the CME originates and then the EEGGL tools provides the parameters of the Gibson-Low magnetic configuration to parameterize the CME. The recommended parameters may be used then to drive the simulation of CME propagation from the low solar corona to 1 AU using the global code for simulating the solar corona and inner heliosphere. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) provides the capability for CME runs-on-request, to the heliophysics community. Title: Heliospheric Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review Authors: Lugaz, Noé; Farrugia, Charles; Schwadron, Nathan; Manchester, Ward B. Bibcode: 2015IAUGA..2237318L Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic events from the Sun and the major driver of intense geomagnetic activity. Traditionally, most research has focused on understanding the causes of CME initiation and the specificities of the interaction between CMEs and Earth's magnetosphere. In-between these two domains, CMEs propagate in the heliosphere, interacting with the solar wind and other transient and corotating structures. The heliospheric propagation of CMEs can now be directly imaged remotely, making it possible to directly compare solar and coronal properties with CME properties measured in situ near Earth. In addition, numerical simulations can be used to get a more complete, 3-D view of CMEs. Here, I will review progress made in the past decade in our understanding of CME propagation and how it affects the CME properties as measured near Earth. In particular, I will discuss CME radial expansion, CME deflection and rotation as well as the interaction of successive CMEs and the interaction of a CME with corotating solar wind structures. Title: A Steady-state Picture of Solar Wind Acceleration and Charge State Composition Derived from a Global Wave-driven MHD Model Authors: Oran, R.; Landi, E.; van der Holst, B.; Lepri, S. T.; Vásquez, A. M.; Nuevo, F. A.; Frazin, R.; Manchester, W.; Sokolov, I.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2015ApJ...806...55O Altcode: 2014arXiv1412.8288O The higher charge states found in slow (<400 km s-1) solar wind streams compared to fast streams have supported the hypothesis that the slow wind originates in closed coronal loops and is released intermittently through reconnection. Here we examine whether a highly ionized slow wind can also form along steady and open magnetic field lines. We model the steady-state solar atmosphere using the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), a global MHD model driven by Alfvén waves, and apply an ionization code to calculate the charge state evolution along modeled open field lines. This constitutes the first charge state calculation covering all latitudes in a realistic magnetic field. The ratios {{O}+7}/{{O}+6} and {{C}+6}/{{C}+5} are compared to in situ Ulysses observations and are found to be higher in the slow wind, as observed; however, they are underpredicted in both wind types. The modeled ion fractions of S, Si, and Fe are used to calculate line-of-sight intensities, which are compared to Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) observations above a coronal hole. The agreement is partial and suggests that all ionization rates are underpredicted. Assuming the presence of suprathermal electrons improved the agreement with both EIS and Ulysses observations; importantly, the trend of higher ionization in the slow wind was maintained. The results suggest that there can be a sub-class of slow wind that is steady and highly ionized. Further analysis shows that it originates from coronal hole boundaries (CHBs), where the modeled electron density and temperature are higher than inside the hole, leading to faster ionization. This property of CHBs is global and observationally supported by EUV tomography. Title: Forecasting ionospheric space weather with applications to satellite drag and radio wave communications and scintillation Authors: Mannucci, Anthony J.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Meng, Xing; Pi, Xiaoqing; Kuang, Da; Wang, Chunming; Rosen, Gary; Ridley, Aaron; Lynch, Erin; Sharma, Surja; Manchester, Ward B.; van der Holst, Bart Bibcode: 2015TESS....111202M Altcode: The development of quantitative models that describe physical processes from the solar corona to the Earth’s upper atmosphere opens the possibility of numerical space weather prediction with a lead-time of a few days. Forecasting solar wind-driven variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere poses especially stringent tests of our scientific understanding and modeling capabilities, in particular of coupling processes to regions above and below. We will describe our work with community models to develop upper atmosphere forecasts starting with the solar wind driver. A number of phenomena are relevant, including high latitude energy deposition, its impact on global thermospheric circulation patterns and composition, and global electrodynamics. Improved scientific understanding of this sun to Earth interaction ultimately leads to practical benefits. We will focus on two ways the upper atmosphere affects life on Earth: by changing satellite orbits, and by interfering with long-range radio communications. Challenges in forecasting these impacts will be addressed, with a particular emphasis on the physical bases for the impacts, and how they connect upstream to the sun and the heliosphere. Title: Counter-streaming alpha proton plasmas in an eroding magnetic cloud: new insights into space plasma evolution from Wind Authors: Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; DeVore, C. R.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH23D..05S Altcode: Coronal jets, routinely observed by multiple instruments at multiple wavelengths, provide a unique opportunity to understand the relationships between magnetic field topology, reconnection, and solar wind heating and acceleration. We simulate coronal jets with the Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) [van der Holst (2014)] and focus our study on the thermodynamical evolution of the plasma. AWSoM solves the two-temperature MHD equations with electron heat conduction, which not only addresses the thermodynamics of individual species, but also allows for the construction of synthetic images from the EUV and soft X-ray wavelength range. Our jet model takes the form of a slowly rotating bipole field imbedded in the open magnetic field of a coronal hole; a topology suggested by observations. We follow the formation and evolution of polar jets starting from the chromosphere and extending into the outer corona. The simulations show small-scale eruptive reconnection events that self-consistently heat and accelerate the solar wind. Our results provide a quantitative comparison to observations made in the EUV and X-ray spectrum. Title: Coronal Hole Boundaries as Source Regions of a Steady Slow Solar Wind: Global Modeling of Charge State Composition and Sun-to-Earth Observations Authors: Oran, R.; Landi, E.; van der Holst, B.; Lepri, S. T.; Manchester, W.; Frazin, R. A.; Nuevo, F.; Vásquez, A. M.; Sokolov, I.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH33A4122O Altcode: We combine the results from a global MHD model of the solar atmosphere with a charge state evolution code in order to predict the large-scale variation of charge state composition in the fast and slow solar wind during solar minimum. The model captures the well-known increase in charge state ratios C+6/ C+5 and O+7/O+6 in the slow wind, inline with Ulysses observations. We present a theoretical picture explaining the formation of these increases, which are related to regions of higher electron density and temperature near the boundaries of coronal holes. We verify the existence of these regions using a 3D tomographic reconstruction of the lower corona. This work establishes that a steady slow wind flowing along open magnetic field lines can carry high charge states without invoking reconnection with closed field regions. This subset of slow wind can play a role explaining the properties of the non-steady slow wind, and complement dynamic models of slow solar wind formation. Title: Ensemble Space Weather Forecasting with the SWMF Authors: Frazin, R. A.; van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W.; Sokolov, I.; Huang, Z.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH53A4207F Altcode: An accurate, physics-based model of the heliosphere that extends from the Sun to the Earth and beyond is the ``holy grail'' of space weather forecasting. Global models that start in the corona (or below) are driven by representations of the full-Sun photospheric magnetic field. Traditionally, the full-Sun magnetic field has been provided by synoptic magnetograms, which are created over a 28 day period and are not an accurate representation of the magnetic field at any given time. Recently, several groups have been producing so-called ``synchronic maps,'' which fuse magnetograms and models including differential rotation, meridional transport and diffusion to create time-dependent full-Sun magnetic field maps. Here, we include a variety of synchronic and synoptic maps to create an ensemble space weather model and report on the results. Title: Simulating CME Eruptions from Active Regions Authors: Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH51E..03M Altcode: Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) typically erupt from the filament channels of active regions where the magnetic field is in a highly non potential state. In this talk, we discuss two numerical models under development that will simulate the evolution of active regions and the buildup of magnetic energy that leads to filament eruptions and CMEs. The first model, the so called regional model simulates the area of an active region in a domain that extends from just above the photosphere at its base to a height of 100 Mm in the low corona. The physics of this model is extended magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), which includes such physical processes as field aligned heat conduction, radiative losses, and tabular equation of state that allow for a self-consistent treatment of the atmosphere including the transition region. For this model, boundary conditions for the magnetic field fields are specified directly from HMI vector magnetogram observations. The second model addresses the buoyant rise of magnetic flux from the convection zone through the photosphere to allow for the self consistent formation and evolution of active regions that leads to the buildup of magnetic free energy. We compare results from this second model to SDO/HMI observations of the 7 January 2014 events to show that the simulation has captured the basic physics of magnetic field evolution an energy build up necessary for large-scale eruptions. Title: Global MHD Simulation of the Coronal Mass Ejection on 2011 March 7: from Chromosphere to 1 AU Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C. A.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH43A4176J Altcode: Performing realistic simulations of solar eruptions and validating those simulations with observations are important goals in order to achieve accurate space weather forecasts. Here, we perform and analyze results of a global magnetohydrodyanmic (MHD) simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and expands to 24 Rs. Coupling of AWSoM to an inner heliosphere (IH) model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulations), optically thin radiative cooling, and Alfven-wave pressure that accelerates the solar wind. The Alfven-wave description is physically consistent, including non-WKB reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low (GL) analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond 1 AU. A comprehensive validation study is performed using remote as well as in-situ observations from SDO, SOHO, STEREOA/B, and OMNI. Our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven EUV waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, "double-front" in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., CME-CIR interaction, shock properties at 1 AU). The CME-driven shock arrival time is within 1 hour of the observed arrival time, and nearly all the in-situ parameters are correctly simulated, which suggests the global MHD model as a powerful tool for the space weather forecasting. Title: Magnetic Flux Erosion and Redistribution during CME Propagation Authors: Lavraud, B.; Ruffenach, A.; Manchester, W.; Farrugia, C. J.; Demoulin, P.; Dasso, S.; Sauvaud, J. A.; Rouillard, A. P.; Foullon, C.; Owens, M. J.; Savani, N.; Kajdic, P.; Luhmann, J. G.; Galvin, A. B. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH22A..01L Altcode: We will review recent works which highlight the occurrence of magnetic flux erosion and redistribution at the front of coronal mass ejections (when they have the structure of a well-defined magnetic cloud). Two main processes have been found and will be presented. The first comes from the occurrence of magnetic reconnection between the magnetic cloud and its sheath ahead, leading to magnetic flux erosion and redistribution, with associated large scale topological changes. The second may occur when dense filament material in the coronal mass ejection pushes its way through the structure and comes in direct contact with the shocked plasma in the sheath ahead. This leads to diverging non-radial flows in front of the CME which transport poloidal flux of the flux rope to the sides of the magnetic cloud. Title: Predicting ICME Magnetic Fields with a Numerical Flux Rope Model Authors: Manchester, W.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSH21C4137M Altcode: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a dramatic manifestation of solar activity that release vast amounts of plasma into the heliosphere, and have many effects on the interplanetary medium and on planetary atmospheres, and are the major driver of space weather. CMEs occur with the formation and expulsion of large-scale flux ropes from the solar corona, which are routinely observed in interplanetary space. Simulating and predicting the structure and dynamics of these ICME magnetic fields is essential to the progress of heliospheric science and space weather prediction. We combine observations made by different observing techniques of CME events to develop a numerical model capable of predicting the magnetic field of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMES). Photospheric magnetic field measurements from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI are used to specify a coronal magnetic flux rope that drives the CMEs. We examine halo CMEs events that produced clearly observed magnetic clouds at Earth and present our model predictions of these events with an emphasis placed on the z component of the magnetic field. Comparison of the MHD model predictions with coronagraph observations and in-situ data allow us to robustly determine the parameters that define the initial state of the driving flux rope, thus providing a predictive model. Title: Forecasting Ionospheric Space Weather Due To High Speed Streams Authors: Mannucci, A. J.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Pi, X.; Lynch, E. M.; Sharma, S.; Ridley, A. J.; Manchester, W.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G. Bibcode: 2014AGUFMSA12A..08M Altcode: The development of quantitative models that describe physical processes from the Solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere opens the possibility of numerical space weather forecasting with a lead time of a few days. We will describe our work with community models to develop ionospheric forecasts starting with the solar wind driver. Our current focus is the daytime ionospheric response to high-speed solar wind streams that are prevalent during the declining phase of the solar cycle. A number of challenges are addressed, including high latitude energy deposition and its impact on global thermospheric circulation patterns and composition. The degree to which forecasts are successful depends on the manner in which Alfvenic solar wind variability drives the ionospheric response. Large-scale and small-scale magnetospheric processes are important to consider, including the role of particle precipitation in depositing energy into the thermosphere and in changing ionospheric conductivities through increased ionization. Accurate forecasts require that we address the following question: what are the impacts of (less predictable) small-scale processes in determining the large-scale daytime ionospheric response, versus the role of larger scale magnetospheric processes that may be easier to predict? We will compare model-based forecasts with a variety of satellite and ground-based data sources to assess the fidelity of physical processes represented in the models. Outstanding science questions that are relevant to forecasts are described. Title: Simulation of magnetic cloud erosion during propagation Authors: Manchester, W. B.; Kozyra, J. U.; Lepri, S. T.; Lavraud, B. Bibcode: 2014JGRA..119.5449M Altcode: We examine a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation describing a very fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagating from the solar corona to 1 AU. In conjunction with its high speed, the ICME evolves in ways that give it a unique appearance at 1 AU that does not resemble a typical ICME. First, as the ICME decelerates far from the Sun in the solar wind, filament material at the back of the flux rope pushes its way forward through the flux rope. Second, diverging nonradial flows in front of the filament transport poloidal flux of the rope to the sides of the ICME. Third, the magnetic flux rope reconnects with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). As a consequence of these processes, the flux rope partially unravels and appears to evolve to an entirely unbalanced configuration. At the same time, filament material at the base of the flux rope moves forward and comes in direct contact with the shocked plasma in the CME sheath. We find evidence that such remarkable behavior has actually occurred when we examine a very fast CME that erupted from the Sun on 2005 January 20. In situ observations of this event near 1 AU show very dense cold material impacting the Earth following immediately behind the CME sheath. Charge state analysis shows this dense plasma is filament material. Consistent with the simulation, we find the poloidal flux (Bz) to be entirely unbalanced, giving the appearance that the flux rope has eroded. The dense solar filament material and unbalanced positive IMF Bz produced a number of anomalous features in a moderate magnetic storm already underway, which are described in a companion paper by Kozyra et al. (2014). Title: Solar filament impact on 21 January 2005: Geospace consequences Authors: Kozyra, J. U.; Liemohn, M. W.; Cattell, C.; De Zeeuw, D.; Escoubet, C. P.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Fok, M. -C.; Frey, H. U.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Hairston, M.; Heelis, R.; Lu, G.; Manchester, W. B.; Mende, S.; Paxton, L. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Ridley, A.; Sandanger, M.; Soraas, F.; Sotirelis, T.; Thomsen, M. W.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Verkhoglyadova, O. Bibcode: 2014JGRA..119.5401K Altcode: On 21 January 2005, a moderate magnetic storm produced a number of anomalous features, some seen more typically during superstorms. The aim of this study is to establish the differences in the space environment from what we expect (and normally observe) for a storm of this intensity, which make it behave in some ways like a superstorm. The storm was driven by one of the fastest interplanetary coronal mass ejections in solar cycle 23, containing a piece of the dense erupting solar filament material. The momentum of the massive solar filament caused it to push its way through the flux rope as the interplanetary coronal mass ejection decelerated moving toward 1 AU creating the appearance of an eroded flux rope (see companion paper by Manchester et al. (2014)) and, in this case, limiting the intensity of the resulting geomagnetic storm. On impact, the solar filament further disrupted the partial ring current shielding in existence at the time, creating a brief superfountain in the equatorial ionosphere—an unusual occurrence for a moderate storm. Within 1 h after impact, a cold dense plasma sheet (CDPS) formed out of the filament material. As the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated from obliquely to more purely northward, the magnetotail transformed from an open to a closed configuration and the CDPS evolved from warmer to cooler temperatures. Plasma sheet densities reached tens per cubic centimeter along the flanks—high enough to inflate the magnetotail in the simulation under northward IMF conditions despite the cool temperatures. Observational evidence for this stretching was provided by a corresponding expansion and intensification of both the auroral oval and ring current precipitation zones linked to magnetotail stretching by field line curvature scattering. Strong Joule heating in the cusps, a by-product of the CDPS formation process, contributed to an equatorward neutral wind surge that reached low latitudes within 1-2 h and intensified the equatorial ionization anomaly. Understanding the geospace consequences of extremes in density and pressure is important because some of the largest and most damaging space weather events ever observed contained similar intervals of dense solar material. Title: Global Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation of the Coronal Mass Ejection on 2011 March 7: from Chromosphere to 1 AU Authors: Jin, Meng; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Vourlidas, A.; de Koning, C.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014shin.confE..10J Altcode: Performing realistic simulations of solar eruptions and validating those simulations with observations are important goals in order to achieve accurate space weather forecasts. Here, we analyze results of a global magnetohydrodyanmic (MHD) simulation of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on 2011 March 7. The simulation is made using the newly developed Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM), which describes the background solar wind starting from the upper chromosphere and expends to 24 Rs. Coupling of AWSoM to an inner heliosphere (IH) model with the Space Weather Modeling Framework extends the total domain beyond the orbit of Earth. Physical processes included in the model are multi-species thermodynamics, electron heat conduction (both collisional and collisionless formulation), optically thin radiative cooling and Alfven-wave pressure that accelerates the solar wind. The Alfven-wave description is physically self-consistent, including non-WKB reflection and physics-based apportioning of turbulent dissipative heating to both electrons and protons. Within this model, we initiate the CME by using the Gibson-Low (GL) analytical flux rope model and follow its evolution for days, in which time it propagates beyond 1 AU. A comprehensive validation study is performed using remote as well as the in situ observations from SDO, SOHO, STEREOA/B, and OMNI. Our results show that the new model can reproduce many of the observed features near the Sun (e.g., CME-driven EUV waves, deflection of the flux rope from the coronal hole, double-front in the white light images) and in the heliosphere (e.g., CME-CIR interaction, shock properties at 1 AU). By fitting the CME speeds near the Sun with observations, the CME-driven shock arrival time is within 1 hour of the observed arrival time and all the in situ parameters are correctly simulated, which suggests the global MHD model as a powerful tool for the space weather forecasting. Title: Charge State Evolution in the Fast and Slow Wind Predicted by a Global Wave-Driven Solar Model Authors: Oran, Rona; Landi, Enrico; van der Holst, Bart; Lepri, Susan; Vásquez, Alberto; Nuevo, Federico; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward; Sokolov, Igor; Gombosi, Tamas Bibcode: 2014shin.confE..66O Altcode: The mechanisms responsible for the formation of the slow solar wind are a subject of vigorous debate in the heliospheric community. The heavy ion charge state composition measured in-situ at 1AU and beyond depend on the plasma conditions along the wind trajectory close to the Sun, and are known to be significantly different when measured in either the fast or slow solar wind. As such, heavy ion charge states have played an important role in testing the various theories concerning the formation of the fast and slow wind, and in determining the source region of the slow solar wind.

We will present results from a global MHD model of the solar atmosphere, in which the wind is heated and accelerated by Alfven waves. The global model results are used to drive a charge state evolution code along open magnetic field lines at all heliographic latitudes. The resulting charge state distributions of several ions are compared to in-situ Ulysses measurements at 1-2AU as well as to high resolution spectra observed in the lower corona. We find that the large scale latitudinal variation in charge states is captured by the model. In particular, the model can reproduce and explain the increase in the O+7/O+6, C+6/C+5 ratios in the slow (steady) solar wind compared to the fast wind. We demonstrate that these increases are associated with a higher plasma density at the base of open field lines whose foot-points are located near the boundary of the coronal holes. We show that this density enhancement as predicted by the model is consistent with EUV tomographic reconstructions of the lower corona. We discuss the possible interpretations and implications of our results to our understanding of solar wind formation. Title: Alfvén Wave Solar Model (AWSoM): Coronal Heating Authors: van der Holst, B.; Sokolov, I. V.; Meng, X.; Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Tóth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...782...81V Altcode: 2013arXiv1311.4093V We present a new version of the Alfvén wave solar model, a global model from the upper chromosphere to the corona and the heliosphere. The coronal heating and solar wind acceleration are addressed with low-frequency Alfvén wave turbulence. The injection of Alfvén wave energy at the inner boundary is such that the Poynting flux is proportional to the magnetic field strength. The three-dimensional magnetic field topology is simulated using data from photospheric magnetic field measurements. This model does not impose open-closed magnetic field boundaries; those develop self-consistently. The physics include the following. (1) The model employs three different temperatures, namely the isotropic electron temperature and the parallel and perpendicular ion temperatures. The firehose, mirror, and ion-cyclotron instabilities due to the developing ion temperature anisotropy are accounted for. (2) The Alfvén waves are partially reflected by the Alfvén speed gradient and the vorticity along the field lines. The resulting counter-propagating waves are responsible for the nonlinear turbulent cascade. The balanced turbulence due to uncorrelated waves near the apex of the closed field lines and the resulting elevated temperatures are addressed. (3) To apportion the wave dissipation to the three temperatures, we employ the results of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating. (4) We have incorporated the collisional and collisionless electron heat conduction. We compare the simulated multi-wavelength extreme ultraviolet images of CR2107 with the observations from STEREO/EUVI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/AIA instruments. We demonstrate that the reflection due to strong magnetic fields in the proximity of active regions sufficiently intensifies the dissipation and observable emission. Title: Geo-effectiveness and radial dependence of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection Authors: Lavraud, Benoit; Ruffenach, Alexis; Rouillard, Alexis P.; Kajdic, Primoz; Manchester, Ward B.; Lugaz, Noé Bibcode: 2014JGRA..119...26L Altcode: flux erosion by magnetic reconnection occurs at the front of at least some magnetic clouds (MCs). We first investigate how erosion influences the geo-effectiveness of MCs in a general sense and using a south-north magnetic polarity MC observed on 18-20 October 1995. Although the magnetic shear at its front may not be known during propagation, measurements at 1 AU show signatures of local reconnection. Using a standard MC model, an empirical model of the geomagnetic response (Dst), and an observational estimate of the magnetic flux erosion, we find that the strength of the observed ensuing storm was ~30% lower than if no erosion had occurred. We then discuss the interplay between adiabatic compression and magnetic erosion at the front of MCs. We conclude that the most geo-effective configuration for a south-north polarity MC is to be preceded by a solar wind with southward IMF. This stems not only from the formation of a geo-effective sheath ahead of it but also from the adiabatic compression and reduced (or lack thereof) magnetic erosion which constructively conspire for the structure to be more geo-effective. Finally, assuming simple semiempirical and theoretical Alfvén speed profiles expected from expansion to 1 AU, we provide first-order estimates of the erosion process radial evolution. We find that the expected reconnection rates during propagation allow for significant erosion, on the order of those reported. Calculations also suggest that most of the erosion should occur in the inner heliosphere, and up to ~50% may yet occur beyond Mercury's orbit. Title: Global ICME-Mars Interaction and Induced Atmospheric Loss Authors: Fang, X.; Ma, Y.; Manchester, W. Bibcode: 2013AGUFM.P21A1701F Altcode: Without the shielding of a strong intrinsic magnetic field, the present-day Mars atmosphere is more vulnerable to external solar wind forcing than the Earth's atmosphere. Therefore interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are expected to drive disturbances in the Mars environment in a profoundly different way, which, however, is poorly understood due to the lack of coordinated solar wind and Mars observations. In this study, three sophisticated models work in concert to simulate the physical domain extending from the solar corona to near-Mars space for the 13 May 2005 ICME event. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be used to investigate the interaction of the ICME with the ambient solar wind and monitor its propagation from the Sun to the planet. A 3-D MHD model for Mars will be applied to assess the planetary atmospheric/ionospheric responses during the ICME passage of Mars. In the Mars weak magnetic field environment, the ion kinetic effects are important and will be included through the use of a 3-D Monte Carlo pickup ion transport model. These physics-based modeling efforts enable us to provide a global and time series view of the Mars response to transient solar wind disturbances and induced atmospheric loss, which is currently not possible due to the limitation of observations. Title: The Interaction of Two Coronal Mass Ejections: Influence of Relative Orientation Authors: Lugaz, N.; Farrugia, C. J.; Manchester, W. B., IV; Schwadron, N. Bibcode: 2013ApJ...778...20L Altcode: 2013arXiv1309.2210L We report on a numerical investigation of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that interact as they propagate in the inner heliosphere. We focus on the effect of the orientation of the CMEs relative to each other by performing four different simulations with the axis of the second CME rotated by 90° from one simulation to the next. Each magnetohydrodynamic simulation is performed in three dimensions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework in an idealized setting reminiscent of solar minimum conditions. We extract synthetic satellite measurements during and after the interaction and compare the different cases. We also analyze the kinematics of the two CMEs, including the evolution of their widths and aspect ratios. We find that the first CME contracts radially as a result of the interaction in all cases, but the amount of subsequent radial expansion depends on the relative orientation of the two CMEs. Reconnection between the two ejecta and between the ejecta and the interplanetary magnetic field determines the type of structure resulting from the interaction. When a CME with a high inclination with respect to the ecliptic overtakes one with a low inclination, it is possible to create a compound event with a smooth rotation in the magnetic field vector over more than 180°. Due to reconnection, the second CME only appears as an extended "tail," and the event may be mistaken for a glancing encounter with an isolated CME. This configuration differs significantly from the one usually studied of a multiple-magnetic-cloud event, which we found to be associated with the interaction of two CMEs with the same orientation. Title: Earth's collision with a solar filament on 21 January 2005: Overview Authors: Kozyra, J. U.; Manchester, W. B.; Escoubet, C. P.; Lepri, S. T.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gonzalez, W. D.; Thomsen, M. W.; Tsurutani, B. T. Bibcode: 2013JGRA..118.5967K Altcode: 21 January 2005, one of the fastest interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) of solar cycle 23, containing exceptionally dense plasma directly behind the sheath, hit the magnetosphere. We show from charge-state analysis that this material was a piece of the erupting solar filament and further, based on comparisons to the simulation of a fast CME, that the unusual location of the filament material was a consequence of three processes. As the ICME decelerated, the momentum of the dense filament material caused it to push through the flux rope toward the nose. Diverging nonradial flows in front of the filament moved magnetic flux to the sides of the ICME. At the same time, reconnection between the leading edge of the ICME and the sheath magnetic fields worked to peel away the outer layers of the flux rope creating a remnant flux rope and a trailing region of newly opened magnetic field lines. These processes combined to move the filament material into direct contact with the ICME sheath region. Within 1 h after impact and under northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, a cold dense plasma sheet formed within the magnetosphere from the filament material. Dense plasma sheet material continued to move through the magnetosphere for more than 6 h as the filament passed by the Earth. Densities were high enough to produce strong diamagnetic stretching of the magnetotail despite the northward IMF conditions and low levels of magnetic activity. The disruptions from the filament collision are linked to an array of unusual features throughout the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere. These results raise questions about whether rare collisions with solar filaments may, under the right conditions, be a factor in producing even more extreme events. Title: Evolution of the Global Temperature Structure of the Solar Corona during the Minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Authors: Nuevo, Federico A.; Huang, Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward B., iv; Jin, Meng; Vásquez, Alberto M. Bibcode: 2013ApJ...773....9N Altcode: The combination of differential emission measure tomography with extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field allows determination of the electron density and electron temperature along individual magnetic field lines. This is especially useful in quiet-Sun (QS) plasmas where individual loops cannot otherwise be identified. In Paper I, this approach was applied to study QS plasmas during Carrington rotation (CR) 2077 at the minimum between solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. In that work, two types of QS coronal loops were identified: "up" loops in which the temperature increases with height, and "down" loops in which the temperature decreases with height. While the first ones were expected, the latter ones were a surprise and, furthermore, were found to be ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. In the present work, we extend the analysis to 11 CRs around the last solar minimum. We found that the "down" population, always located at low latitudes, was maximum at the time when the sunspot number was minimum, and the number of down loops systematically increased during the declining phase of SC-23 and diminished during the rising phase of SC-24. "Down" loops are found to have systematically larger values of β than do "up" loops. These discoveries are interpreted in terms of excitation of Alfvén waves in the photosphere, and mode conversion and damping in the low corona. Title: Numerical Simulations of Coronal Mass Ejection on 2011 March 7: One-temperature and Two-temperature Model Comparison Authors: Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; van der Holst, B.; Oran, R.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Liu, Y.; Sun, X. D.; Gombosi, T. I. Bibcode: 2013ApJ...773...50J Altcode: During Carrington rotation (CR) 2107, a fast coronal mass ejection (CME; >2000 km s-1) occurred in active region NOAA 11164. This event is also associated with a solar energetic particle event. In this study, we present simulations of this CME with one-temperature (1T) and two-temperature (2T: coupled thermodynamics of the electron and proton populations) models. Both the 1T and 2T models start from the chromosphere with heat conduction and radiative cooling. The background solar wind is driven by Alfvén-wave pressure and heated by Alfvén-wave dissipation in which we have incorporated the balanced turbulence at the top of the closed field lines. The magnetic field of the inner boundary is set up using a synoptic map from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. The Titov-Démoulin flux-rope model is used to initiate the CME event. We compare the propagation of fast CMEs and the thermodynamics of CME-driven shocks in both the 1T and 2T CME simulations. Also, the synthesized white light images are compared with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph observations. Because there is no distinction between electron and proton temperatures, heat conduction in the 1T model creates an unphysical temperature precursor in front of the CME-driven shock and makes the shock parameters (e.g., shock Mach number, compression ratio) incorrect. Our results demonstrate the importance of the electron heat conduction in conjunction with proton shock heating in order to produce the physically correct CME structures and CME-driven shocks. Title: Turbulence Model for Multi-Band EUV Emission in the Solar Atmosphere Authors: van der Holst, Bart; Sokolov, I.; Manchester, W.; Jin, M.; Oran, R.; Gombosi, T. Bibcode: 2013shin.confE.104V Altcode: The low corona is the heart of global solar models, because that is where the interplanetary magnetic fields, solar wind, coronal heating, and solar flares originate. Multi-wavelength observations obtained by SDO/AIA and STEREO/EUVI provide very important detailed information on the morphology, thermodynamic status and evolution of the low solar corona. Observations from SDO and STEREO can thus be used to effectively constrain and validate numerical models of the lower solar atmosphere.

We present a global model of the lower solar corona in which the coronal heating and solar wind acceleration are addressed with low-frequency, reflection-driven Alfven wave turbulence. At the inner boundary the Poynting flux of the Alfven waves is prescribed to be proportional to the magnetic field strength. A unique key feature of this model is that the wave dissipation on open and closed field lines is incorporated in a unified manner. The model does not impose open-closed magnetic field boundaries, those naturally develop from the ingested observed photospheric magnetic fields and the used wave dissipation mechanism. On open field lines the turbulence is strongly imbalanced, so that the turbulent cascade due to the linear wave reflection is proportional to the Alfven speed gradients. However, near the top of closed field the turbulence is balanced, resulting in enhanced nonlinear dissipation. The simulated multi-wavelength EUV images are compared with the observations from SDO/AIA and STEREO/EUVI instruments to test this turbulence model. Title: Global Modeling of the July 23, 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Energetic Particle Event Authors: Evans, Rebekah Minnel; Kozarev, Kamen A.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Opher, Merav; Manchester, Ward; Sokolov, Igor; van der Holst, Bart Bibcode: 2013shin.confE...7E Altcode: The CME and SEP event of July 23, 2012 was extreme in many ways - the speed of a CME as imaged in coronagraphs, the speed and magnetic field strength measured in-situ, and the level of energetic particles. Another special feature of this event is that it caused SEP events at Earth, STEREO A and STEREO B, which were very separated at the time. The extreme and whole-heliosphere nature of this event makes it an excellent candidate to study with two recently coupled models: the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM). The SWMF, which itself couples three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models describing the solar corona and heliosphere, is used to simulate the eruption starting from the low corona. The MHD output describing the fast CME event is coupled to a global kinetic simulation of particle acceleration and transport within EPREM. The output of the particle simulation is synthetic time-dependent spectra influenced by the dynamics of CME structures that form self-consistently during propagation. With these simulations, we can probe how the properties of the CME sheath and shock vary as the CME interacts with the ambient corona and heliosphere. These simulations can test current theories of SEP production, including how SEP properties relate to the properties of the associated CME, CME-driven shock and coronal environment. Finally, we can trace how particles that interacted with the CME near the Sun propagate throughout the heliosphere. Title: CME-CME Interaction: Influence of Relative Orientation Authors: Lugaz, Noe; Farrugia, C. J.; Manchester, W. B.; Schwadron, N. Bibcode: 2013shin.confE.146L Altcode: We report on an numerical investigation of the interaction of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they propagate between the Sun and the Earth. We focus on the effect of the relative orientation of the CMEs with respect to each other by performing four different simulations with the axis of the second CME rotated by 90 degrees from one simulation to the next. The simulations are performed with the SWMF in an idealized setting reminiscent of solar minimum conditions. We have extracted synthetic satellite measurements in the inner heliosphere at 0.15, 0.3, and 1 AU and have compared the different cases. We find significant differences in the reconnection between the different ejecta and with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). In particular, when a CME with a high inclination with respect to the ecliptic overtakes one with a low inclination, it is possible to create a compound event with smooth rotations in the magnetic field vector and an extended tail, which may be mistaken for an usual crossing of a single, isolated CME. We also analyze the kinematics of the two CMEs in different cases, including their expansion rate, and we discuss their expected geo-effectiveness. Title: Stability of Inverted Temperature Loops in the Quiet Corona Authors: Huang, Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard A.; van der Holst, Bart; Nuevo, Federico A.; Vasquez, Alberto M.; Manchester, Ward B., IV; Sokolov, Igor V.; Gombosi, Tamas I. Bibcode: 2013shin.confE..85H Altcode: Recent investigations of the quiet Corona have revealed the existence of inverted temperature